Ministry of Education and Training (MOET)
National Economics University (NEU)
———————–

Press Information on the National Scientific Conference:

Vietnam’s Economy in 2024 and Outlook for 2025

“Advancing Economic Institutional Reform in a New Context”

& Launch of the Vietnam Annual Economic Review 2024

In keeping with annual practice, NEU, in collaboration with the Central Commission for Policy and Strategy and the National Assembly’s Economic and Financial Committee, is organizing a national scientific conference to assess Vietnam’s economy in 2024 and its outlook for 2025, and to launch NEU’s Vietnam Annual Economic Review 2024. The theme of both the conference and this year’s annual publication is “Vietnam’s economy in 2024 and outlook for 2025: Advancing economic institutional reform in a new context”.

I. Background

Entering 2024, global inflation showed signs of easing, while economic growth gradually recovered but remained below pre-pandemic levels. Major central banks around the world began shifting toward monetary easing. Against this backdrop, Vietnam’s economy also recorded many improvements compared with previous years. GDP growth in 2024 reached 7.09%, significantly higher than the 5.07% recorded in 2023 and above the planned target. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.63% for the year, in line with the National Assembly’s target. Outstanding credit to the economy grew by 15.08%, with credit disbursements distributed more evenly across quarters, providing positive support for enterprises’ production and business activities. International trade recovered strongly, with exports rising 14.3% and imports increasing 16.7%. The merchandise trade surplus reached USD 24.77 billion. Total realized investment across the economy at current prices in 2024 increased by 7.5% compared with 2023, reflecting a positive recovery in production and business activities. In particular, foreign direct investment (FDI) increased by 9.4%, the highest increase ever recorded.

However, business sector performance continued to show some worrying signs. Although more than 233.4 thousand enterprises were newly established or resumed operations, an increase of 7.1% compared with 2023, the number of enterprises exiting the market reached 197.9 thousand, up 14.7% compared with the same period of the previous year. In many industries, enterprises tended to scale down due to less-than-positive expectations of business opportunities. These results indicate that the economy still faces numerous internal problems. Aggregate demand has gradually recovered, but to achieve sustainable long-term growth, Vietnam’s economy needs to improve supply-side factors. One prominent factor in the current context is the issue of economic institutions.

Economic institutions play an important role in every country’s long-term development. In Why Nations Fail, Acemoglu and Robinson (2012) argue that a nation’s prosperity or decline depends primarily on the quality of its institutions, particularly inclusive economic institutions. These institutions must safeguard property rights and freedom of enterprise, encourage broad participation by people and businesses in economic activities, and maintain transparent legal and governance mechanisms to minimize the risk of abuse of power. A strong system of economic institutions provides a foundation for unlocking resources, fostering innovation, and sustaining the momentum for sustainable growth.

After nearly 40 years of Doi Moi, Vietnam has made major achievements in economic development, ranking among the world’s 30 largest economies by GDP. Its system of economic institutions has gradually improved, creating a more favorable legal environment for the market and international integration. However, many institutional limitations continue to constrain growth potential, including issues concerning the protection of property rights, barriers to market entry, and the quality of public governance.

As Vietnam targets high growth in the coming period to become a high-income country by 2045, economic institutional reform is a pivotal task for sustaining existing growth drivers and creating new ones. Therefore, in addition to providing an overall assessment of the economy in 2024, the conference will focus on analyzing and evaluating the process of economic institutional renewal in Vietnam and offering policy recommendations to advance economic institutional reform, thereby enabling the economy to enter a phase of rapid and sustainable development in the new context.

II. Conference Objectives and Topics

The conference will comprehensively review Vietnam’s economy in 2024, assess the current state of economic institutions in Vietnam, and identify their limitations and the causes of those limitations. It will also propose policy recommendations for economic management in 2025 and major economic institutional reforms in the new context.

With these objectives, the conference will focus on the following topics:

– Clarifying the international context and global impacts on Vietnam’s economy in 2024;

– Assessing Vietnam’s economic developments in 2024 across the economy’s main sectors (the real sector, external sector, monetary and financial sector, and fiscal sector); achievements and limitations; and the causes of those limitations;

– Assessing the current state of economic institutions in Vietnam in two institutional areas: 1) the system of economic laws, and 2) the state apparatus involved in exercising state power in relation to the market;

– Analyzing opportunities and challenges in 2025; assessing Vietnam’s economic outlook for 2025.

– Proposing policy recommendations for economic management in 2025 as well as economic institutional reforms in the new context.

III. Date and Venue

– Date: April 10, 2024 (Thursday).

– Venue: Hall A2, NEU, 207 Giai Phong, Hai Ba Trung, Hanoi.

IV. Participants

The publication’s co-editors, Prof. Dr. Pham Hong Chuong and Prof. Dr. To Trung Thanh of NEU, will present and participate in discussions at the conference;

And the keynote speakers:

– Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Hong Son, Deputy Head of the Central Commission for Policy and Strategy;

– Prof. Dr. Pham Hong Chuong, President of NEU;

– Prof. Dr. To Trung Thanh, NEU;

– Phan Duc Hieu, Standing Member of the National Assembly’s Economic and Financial Committee;

– Dr. Vu Thanh Tu Anh, Fulbright University Vietnam;

– Pham Chi Lan, Economist;

– Assoc. Prof. Dr. Bui Tat Thang, Former Director of the Institute of Development Strategy;

– Assoc. Prof. Dr. Bui Van Huyen, Director of the Institute of Economics, Society and Environment, Ho Chi Minh National Academy of Politics;

– Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham The Anh, NEU;

– Dr. Dang Duc Anh, Deputy Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management.

The conference will bring together 300 scholars from international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank (WB), the Asian Development Bank (ADB), and others; and from central agencies, universities, and research institutes in Vietnam and abroad, including the Central Commission for Policy and Strategy; the National Assembly’s Economic and Financial Committee; the Government Office; the National Financial Supervisory Commission; the State Bank of Vietnam; the Ministry of Finance; the Ministry of Industry and Trade; the Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences; research institutes and universities specializing in economics and business administration; as well as economists, business representatives, and journalists.

The press conference launching the Vietnam Annual Economic Review will be held at 8:00 a.m. on the same day in Room B101-102, Building A2, NEU.

For an introduction to the Vietnam Annual Economic Review 2024: Advancing economic institutional reform in a new context, see HERE

For the event program, see HERE

For information about the conference, please contact:

MSc. Vu Phuong Linh, Department of Communications, NEU, mobile: 0973.256.257, email: linhvp@neu.edu.vn

MSc. Bui Huy Hoan, Department of Research Management, NEU, mobile: 0965.666.857, email: hoanbh@neu.edu.vn

Please take note of this announcement.

Organizing Committee

This is an automated translation. If you notice any errors, please contact the Department of Communications, National Economics University at phongtruyenthong@neu.edu.vn.