{"id":76969,"date":"2024-01-01T08:47:00","date_gmt":"2024-01-01T01:47:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/assoc-prof-dr-pham-the-anh-vietnams-economy-still-has-many-bright-spots-despite-difficulties\/"},"modified":"2024-01-01T08:47:00","modified_gmt":"2024-01-01T01:47:00","slug":"assoc-prof-dr-pham-the-anh-vietnams-economy-still-has-many-bright-spots-despite-difficulties","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/assoc-prof-dr-pham-the-anh-vietnams-economy-still-has-many-bright-spots-despite-difficulties\/","title":{"rendered":"Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham The Anh: Vietnam\u2019s Economy Still Has Many \u201cBright Spots\u201d Despite Difficulties"},"content":{"rendered":"
(TBTCO) – Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham The Anh, Dean of the Faculty of Economics at National Economics University (NEU), said Vietnam\u2019s economy showed signs of recovery in 2023. However, with the global economy forecast to face many potential challenges in 2024, fiscal and monetary policies are needed to support continued economic recovery and development.<\/div>\n
\n\n\n\n
\"Vietnam\u2019s<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Reporter:<\/strong> Looking back at 2023, despite numerous difficulties and challenges caused by the global economic slowdown, our economy recorded many positive highlights thanks to the Government\u2019s decisive direction and the efforts of ministries and sectors, creating momentum for 2024. What are your comments on the economic picture over the past year?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
\"Vietnam\u2019s<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham The Anh<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham The Anh:<\/strong> I agree with that assessment. Globally, economic growth is slowing, with growth trending lower from one year to the next. Global economic growth stood at 3.5% in 2022 but only 3% in 2023.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Vietnam\u2019s National Assembly set a growth target of 6.5% for 2023, lower than the 8.02% achieved in 2022.<\/p>\n

Thanks to the Government\u2019s decisive direction and the efforts of ministries and sectors, our economy maintained macroeconomic stability amid the global economic slowdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n

Achieving 5.05% GDP growth reflects a major effort<\/strong><\/p>\n

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham The Anh said fiscal policies and tax exemptions and reductions, including the reduction in value-added tax (VAT) on essential goods in 2023, helped our economy recover, with growth rising each quarter. Vietnam\u2019s GDP growth reached 5.05% in 2023, below the 6.5% target but still higher than that of many countries in the region and worldwide. At this pace, our country\u2019s growth exceeded that of many Southeast Asian countries. According to ADB forecasts, GDP growth in 2023 was projected to reach 5.0% for Indonesia, 4.5% for Malaysia and 3.5% for Thailand.<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

According to figures recently released by the General Statistics Office, our economy\u2019s GDP was estimated at approximately VND 10.22 quadrillion by the end of 2023, equivalent to USD 430 billion. GDP per capita at current prices in 2023 was estimated at VND 101.9 million per person, equivalent to USD 4,284, an increase of USD 160 from 2022. In the fourth quarter of 2023 alone, gross domestic product (GDP) was estimated to have grown by 6.72% year on year, higher than fourth-quarter growth in the years from 2020 to 2022.<\/p>\n

I believe these results reflect the impact of the Government\u2019s recent fiscal and monetary expansion efforts, which supported businesses and people in coping with difficulties, helping the economy show signs of recovery. Core inflation has declined.<\/p>\n

Reporter:<\/strong> Could you provide a more in-depth analysis of the challenges and positive signals in Vietnam\u2019s economy in 2023?<\/em><\/p>\n

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham The Anh:<\/strong> The domestic economic recovery is closely tied to global economic developments. Demand for credit for production is currently low and will remain so until exports pick up again. The economy faces difficulties, the real estate market is frozen, and nonperforming loans are rising rapidly. These challenges have persisted and will continue into 2024.<\/p>\n

However, in my view, the economy\u2019s current bright spots are positive growth in agriculture, forestry and fisheries, the return to growth in industry and construction, and the recovery of the processing and manufacturing sector. Alongside this, public investment is helping drive growth in construction. Electricity production and distribution have improved thanks to the weather.<\/p>\n

Regarding exports and imports, according to the General Statistics Office, total trade in 2023 was estimated at USD 683 billion, comprising estimated exports of USD 355.5 billion and imports of USD 327.5 billion. The trade balance continued to record a surplus for the eighth consecutive year, reaching nearly USD 28 billion, almost three times the 2022 level. This contributed positively to the balance of payments, helping increase foreign exchange reserves and stabilize the exchange rate and other macroeconomic indicators. The markets with which Vietnam recorded its largest trade surpluses included the United States and the EU, while China accounted for its largest trade deficit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
\"Vietnam\u2019s<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rice exports were one of the bright spots in exports in 2023. Photo: File<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Although core inflation has declined, the pace of decline is slow. Attention should be paid to signs of a renewed rise in headline inflation due to higher fuel, electricity, water and food prices, a rising exchange rate, and the effects of political conflicts.<\/p>\n

Therefore, the policy direction ahead is to continue easing to support growth while exercising greater caution regarding inflation. Accordingly, the State Bank of Vietnam will maintain low interest rates and intervene to stabilize the exchange rate when necessary, while fiscal policy can be used to support economic recovery.<\/p>\n

Reporter: <\/strong>With global economic growth forecast at only around 2.9% in 2024, our economy will continue to face this pressure. As an economist, what fiscal and monetary solutions would you propose for 2024 to help sustain and regain economic growth momentum?<\/em><\/p>\n

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham The Anh: <\/strong>The global economy faces many difficulties on its path to recovery due to adverse geopolitical factors, inflation, interest rates and higher financial risks. These factors also affect domestic economic growth, despite the advantages offered by free trade agreements and shifts in global investment flows.<\/p>\n

With the global economy forecast to continue facing many difficulties, the Government should consider applying a number of fiscal measures, specifically changes to tax policy to improve the quality of growth.<\/p>\n

Among these, the proposal to increase special consumption tax on certain products, such as liquor, beer and tobacco, is expected to help guide production and limit the use of products harmful to health, while demonstrating the Government\u2019s commitment to sustainable development and social welfare goals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n

Attention should be paid to factors driving up inflation and to monetary policy in 2024<\/strong><\/p>\n

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham The Anh said that although core inflation declined in 2023, the pace of decline was slow. He emphasized the need to watch for signs of a renewed rise in headline inflation due to higher fuel, electricity, water and food prices, a rising exchange rate, and the effects of political conflicts.<\/p>\n

Prices of nonessential consumer goods are rising slowly, indicating weak consumer demand. Inflation is unlikely to rise sharply amid low aggregate demand (declining incomes and assets) and slow credit growth.<\/p>\n

Therefore, the policy direction in 2024 is to continue easing to support growth while exercising greater caution regarding inflation. Accordingly, the State Bank of Vietnam will maintain low interest rates and intervene to stabilize the exchange rate when necessary, while fiscal policy can be used to support economic recovery. Over the long term, the economy will continue to depend on credit, as the bond market will take considerable time to recover. Meanwhile, deposit interest rates are near their lowest levels, leaving little room for further reductions.<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/div>\n

Song Linh<\/a><\/h2>\n

Link: https:\/\/thoibaotaichinhvietnam.vn\/kinh-te-viet-nam-trong-kho-khan-van-co-nhieu-diem-sang-142750.html<\/a><\/p>\n

This is an automated translation. If you notice any errors, please contact the Department of Communications, National Economics University at phongtruyenthong@neu.edu.vn<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(TBTCO) – Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham The Anh, Dean of the Faculty of Economics at National Economics University (NEU), said Vietnam\u2019s economy showed signs of recovery in 2023. However, with the global economy forecast to face many potential challenges in 2024, fiscal and monetary policies are needed to support continued economic recovery and development. Reporter: Looking back at 2023, despite numerous difficulties and challenges caused by the global economic slowdown, our economy recorded many positive highlights thanks to the Government\u2019s decisive direction and the efforts of ministries and sectors, creating momentum for 2024. What are your comments on the economic picture over the past year? Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham The Anh Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham The Anh: I agree with that assessment. Globally, economic growth is slowing, with growth trending lower from one year to the next. Global economic growth stood at 3.5% in 2022 but only 3% in 2023. Meanwhile, Vietnam\u2019s National Assembly set a growth target of 6.5% for 2023, lower than the 8.02% achieved in 2022. Thanks to the Government\u2019s decisive direction and the efforts of ministries and sectors, our economy maintained macroeconomic stability amid the global economic slowdown. Achieving 5.05% GDP growth reflects a major effort Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham The Anh said fiscal policies and tax exemptions and reductions, including the reduction in value-added tax (VAT) on essential goods in 2023, helped our economy recover, with growth rising each quarter. Vietnam\u2019s GDP growth reached 5.05% in 2023, below the 6.5% target but still higher than that of many countries in the region and worldwide. At this pace, our country\u2019s growth exceeded that of many Southeast Asian countries. According to ADB forecasts, GDP growth in 2023 was projected to reach 5.0% for Indonesia, 4.5% for Malaysia and 3.5% for Thailand. According to figures recently released by the General Statistics Office, our economy\u2019s GDP was estimated at approximately VND 10.22 quadrillion by the end of 2023, equivalent to USD 430 billion. GDP per capita at current prices in 2023 was estimated at VND 101.9 million per person, equivalent to USD 4,284, an increase of USD 160 from 2022. In the fourth quarter of 2023 alone, gross domestic product (GDP) was estimated to have grown by 6.72% year on year, higher than fourth-quarter growth in the years from 2020 to 2022. I believe these results reflect the impact of the Government\u2019s recent fiscal and monetary expansion efforts, which supported businesses and people in coping with difficulties, helping the economy show signs of recovery. Core inflation has declined. Reporter: Could you provide a more in-depth analysis of the challenges and positive signals in Vietnam\u2019s economy in 2023? Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham The Anh: The domestic economic recovery is closely tied to global economic developments. Demand for credit for production is currently low and will remain so until exports pick up again. The economy faces difficulties, the real estate market is frozen, and nonperforming loans are rising rapidly. These challenges have persisted and will continue into 2024. However, in my view, the economy\u2019s current bright spots are positive growth in agriculture, forestry and fisheries, the return to growth in industry and construction, and the recovery of the processing and manufacturing sector. Alongside this, public investment is helping drive growth in construction. Electricity production and distribution have improved thanks to the weather. Regarding exports and imports, according to the General Statistics Office, total trade in 2023 was estimated at USD 683 billion, comprising estimated exports of USD 355.5 billion and imports of USD 327.5 billion. The trade balance continued to record a surplus for the eighth consecutive year, reaching nearly USD 28 billion, almost three times the 2022 level. This contributed positively to the balance of payments, helping increase foreign exchange reserves and stabilize the exchange rate and other macroeconomic indicators. The markets with which Vietnam recorded its largest trade surpluses included the United States and the EU, while China accounted for its largest trade deficit. Rice exports were one of the bright spots in exports in 2023. Photo: File Although core inflation has declined, the pace of decline is slow. Attention should be paid to signs of a renewed rise in headline inflation due to higher fuel, electricity, water and food prices, a rising exchange rate, and the effects of political conflicts. Therefore, the policy direction ahead is to continue easing to support growth while exercising greater caution regarding inflation. Accordingly, the State Bank of Vietnam will maintain low interest rates and intervene to stabilize the exchange rate when necessary, while fiscal policy can be used to support economic recovery. Reporter: With global economic growth forecast at only around 2.9% in 2024, our economy will continue to face this pressure. As an economist, what fiscal and monetary solutions would you propose for 2024 to help sustain and regain economic growth momentum? Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham The Anh: The global economy faces many difficulties on its path to recovery due to adverse geopolitical factors, inflation, interest rates and higher financial risks. These factors also affect domestic economic growth, despite the advantages offered by free trade agreements and shifts in global investment flows. With the global economy forecast to continue facing many difficulties, the Government should consider applying a number of fiscal measures, specifically changes to tax policy to improve the quality of growth. Among these, the proposal to increase special consumption tax on certain products, such as liquor, beer and tobacco, is expected to help guide production and limit the use of products harmful to health, while demonstrating the Government\u2019s commitment to sustainable development and social welfare goals. Attention should be paid to factors driving up inflation and to monetary policy in 2024 Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham The Anh said that although core inflation declined in 2023, the pace of decline was slow. He emphasized the need to watch for signs of a renewed rise in headline inflation due to higher fuel, electricity, water and food prices, a rising exchange rate, and the effects of political conflicts. Prices of nonessential […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":36978,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[724],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-76969","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economic-information"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76969","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=76969"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76969\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/36978"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=76969"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=76969"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=76969"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}