{"id":76949,"date":"2024-02-10T14:11:00","date_gmt":"2024-02-10T07:11:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/giaothuong-congthuong-vn-assoc-prof-dr-nguyen-thuong-lang-can-vietnams-exports-become-a-dragon-in-the-year-of-the-dragon\/"},"modified":"2024-02-10T14:11:00","modified_gmt":"2024-02-10T07:11:00","slug":"giaothuong-congthuong-vn-assoc-prof-dr-nguyen-thuong-lang-can-vietnams-exports-become-a-dragon-in-the-year-of-the-dragon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/giaothuong-congthuong-vn-assoc-prof-dr-nguyen-thuong-lang-can-vietnams-exports-become-a-dragon-in-the-year-of-the-dragon\/","title":{"rendered":"Giaothuong.congthuong.vn: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang: Can Vietnam\u2019s Exports \u201cBecome a Dragon\u201d in the Year of the Dragon?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Vietnam\u2019s Exports Enter the 2024 Year of the Dragon Amid Both Opportunities and Challenges, Requiring Extraordinary Efforts and New Approaches<\/h3>\n

At the start of the Year of the Dragon, we spoke with economic expert Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang of National Economics University (NEU) about the challenges that Vietnam\u2019s exports<\/a> must strive to overcome this year.<\/p>\n

Let us begin our New Year conversation with a hotspot from last year that affects exports: the Red Sea. What is your outlook for this hotspot and its impact on Vietnam\u2019s exports in 2024?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang<\/strong>: The Red Sea will remain a hotspot throughout 2024 because of strategic competition among major powers. Developments involving the Red Sea are increasing the costs of Vietnamese exports on routes to Europe, North Africa, the Middle East, and the East Coast of the United States. These markets account for substantial volumes of our exports, not only now but also in the future. The conflict in the Red Sea risks interrupting or even breaking Vietnam\u2019s supply chains and weakening partners\u2019 commitment to importing Vietnamese goods because of rising freight and insurance costs.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n
\"Developments<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Developments in the Red Sea region raise concerns for global exports. Illustrative photo<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/div>\n

It is important to recognize that prices rise whether contracts use FOB terms for exports or CIF terms for imports. If prices rise beyond partners\u2019 ability to pay, they will reduce imports or even cancel contracts, creating high risks and making losses difficult to avoid. If this conflict persists, it will hinder implementation of the Merchandise Export and Import Strategy through 2030, in which this region plays a significant role.<\/p>\n

To minimize losses, businesses, the Government, and partners all need to take decisive measures. Businesses can renegotiate contracts and, above all, strive not to lose partners, even accepting certain risks and losses to maintain trading relationships. Options include using risk contingency funds to absorb unexpected losses, tapping the domestic market to sell inventories that cannot be exported, developing online trading platforms to connect businesses, sharing difficulties within networks or associations, and implementing barter arrangements to minimize losses.<\/p>\n

State regulatory agencies need to provide regular information on the Red Sea situation so businesses can make appropriate choices. This includes information from Vietnam Trade Offices<\/a> in conflict areas, overseas Vietnamese, and partners, as well as information on partners\u2019 responses from which businesses can learn. Measures are needed to help with export costs, such as reducing public service charges, supervision costs, and informal costs. The post-pandemic recovery interest rate support program should be implemented, alongside support for shipments passing through the Red Sea that face sharp increases in freight and insurance costs. Fiscal support, such as tax exemptions and reductions, should be provided in special cases. In the long term, Vietnam needs to actively and proactively develop a large-scale international shipping fleet and logistics services to strengthen businesses\u2019 resilience in uncertain situations.<\/p>\n

Returning to Vietnam\u2019s exports, 2023 could be described as an unusual year for export value: it was only the second time in nearly 40 years of Doi Moi that exports recorded negative growth. How do you view this?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang<\/strong>: Negative growth in export value in 2023 shows that reality differed fundamentally from the scenarios developed. Export markets can prove more uncertain and unpredictable than expected. Forecasts of market fluctuations have not achieved an adequate level of reliability, and responses to declining export markets have not been linked to appropriate risk contingency mechanisms.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n
\"Can<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/div>\n

Moreover, the export mix has essentially fallen a step behind export standards associated with the trends toward green transition, a circular economy<\/a>, low-carbon commitments, organic products, and the commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.<\/p>\n

We must also consider the intense competition currently taking place in exports and the considerable ability to learn from one another within a short time. As a result, product life cycles are shortening, and technological advances are driving rapid product replacement. In addition, countries\u2019 monetary tightening policies to combat inflation and the spread of armed conflicts are creating difficulties for exports. Vietnam\u2019s export mix reveals weaknesses in sustainability and considerable dependence on the foreign-invested sector.<\/p>\n

Negative export growth signals the need for a comprehensive reassessment of Vietnam\u2019s export model, encompassing strategy, policies, mechanisms, and businesses. This shortcoming requires in-depth analysis to identify more effective solutions for the next stage. \u201cNecessity is the mother of invention<\/em>,\u201d and these shortcomings will provide opportunities to develop new approaches to tapping the substantial export potential that remains.<\/p>\n

Alongside existing markets, many markets have yet to be adequately tapped, such as the market for Halal-standard products, with 1.9 billion consumers worldwide. In ASEAN alone, there are nearly 300 million consumers who follow Halal standards, yet this market remains largely underdeveloped. The supply of more than 10,000 OCOP products<\/a> rated three stars or higher has also yet to be tapped for exports. Opportunities to export agricultural products at high prices and in large volumes remain\u2026 These are sources of potential and growth drivers that need to be tapped. The rapidly rising number of international visitors to Vietnam is also a resource that generates considerable value through on-site exports.<\/p>\n

Against this backdrop, what issues need attention in Vietnam\u2019s exports in 2024?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang:<\/strong> There will be several important aspects of exports in 2024.<\/p>\n

First,<\/em> standards relating to greening, net emissions reductions, low carbon, organic products, and the circular economy will become core requirements for export goods. Countries\u2019 policies have applied these requirements to varying degrees, from partial to widespread implementation. These regulations increase compliance costs, and exporters need plans to meet them in order to tap market opportunities in new directions. Competition in these market segments will be no less intense. Particular attention must be paid to meeting these requirements when exporting products in which Vietnam has an advantage, such as textiles and garments and agricultural products. Demand for green, clean, tasty, and attractive products will significantly shape import trends. Trade policy will directly guide industrial policy to create the greatest possible synergy, providing a basis for leveraging fiscal and monetary policies to increase exports.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n
\"Can<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Actively and proactively develop a large-scale international shipping fleet and logistics services to strengthen businesses\u2019 resilience in uncertain situations. Illustrative photo.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/div>\n

Second<\/em>, exports of industrial goods and consumer demand for these goods will be tied to stringent requirements for an energy transition toward a greater share of renewable and new energy and reduced use of traditional energy. The development and commercialization of numerous technological advances will change the trade landscape, particularly by expanding its scale and changing its structure.<\/p>\n

Related to this are the roles of e-commerce, artificial intelligence, and digital transformation in trade, which will provide further momentum for trade. E-commerce platforms will be used to their fullest potential. Next, market opportunities will take on a new form as supply chains are connected to avoid disruptions to countries\u2019 supplies of goods. More countries will tap the Halal product market, and approaches to accessing it will become more effective. Furthermore, export risks remain substantial as conflicts may still spread, global fragmentation may persist, and these factors could adversely affect exports by increasing costs.<\/p>\n

Thank you!<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Quang Loc<\/strong><\/div>\n

Link: https:\/\/giaothuong.congthuong.vn\/xuat-khau-viet-nam-nam-giap-thin-lieu-co-hoa-rong-302551.html<\/a><\/p>\n

This is an automated translation. If you notice any errors, please contact the Department of Communications, National Economics University at phongtruyenthong@neu.edu.vn<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Vietnam\u2019s Exports Enter the 2024 Year of the Dragon Amid Both Opportunities and Challenges, Requiring Extraordinary Efforts and New Approaches At the start of the Year of the Dragon, we spoke with economic expert Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang of National Economics University (NEU) about the challenges that Vietnam\u2019s exports must strive to overcome this year. Let us begin our New Year conversation with a hotspot from last year that affects exports: the Red Sea. What is your outlook for this hotspot and its impact on Vietnam\u2019s exports in 2024? Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang: The Red Sea will remain a hotspot throughout 2024 because of strategic competition among major powers. Developments involving the Red Sea are increasing the costs of Vietnamese exports on routes to Europe, North Africa, the Middle East, and the East Coast of the United States. These markets account for substantial volumes of our exports, not only now but also in the future. The conflict in the Red Sea risks interrupting or even breaking Vietnam\u2019s supply chains and weakening partners\u2019 commitment to importing Vietnamese goods because of rising freight and insurance costs. Developments in the Red Sea region raise concerns for global exports. Illustrative photo It is important to recognize that prices rise whether contracts use FOB terms for exports or CIF terms for imports. If prices rise beyond partners\u2019 ability to pay, they will reduce imports or even cancel contracts, creating high risks and making losses difficult to avoid. If this conflict persists, it will hinder implementation of the Merchandise Export and Import Strategy through 2030, in which this region plays a significant role. To minimize losses, businesses, the Government, and partners all need to take decisive measures. Businesses can renegotiate contracts and, above all, strive not to lose partners, even accepting certain risks and losses to maintain trading relationships. Options include using risk contingency funds to absorb unexpected losses, tapping the domestic market to sell inventories that cannot be exported, developing online trading platforms to connect businesses, sharing difficulties within networks or associations, and implementing barter arrangements to minimize losses. State regulatory agencies need to provide regular information on the Red Sea situation so businesses can make appropriate choices. This includes information from Vietnam Trade Offices in conflict areas, overseas Vietnamese, and partners, as well as information on partners\u2019 responses from which businesses can learn. Measures are needed to help with export costs, such as reducing public service charges, supervision costs, and informal costs. The post-pandemic recovery interest rate support program should be implemented, alongside support for shipments passing through the Red Sea that face sharp increases in freight and insurance costs. Fiscal support, such as tax exemptions and reductions, should be provided in special cases. In the long term, Vietnam needs to actively and proactively develop a large-scale international shipping fleet and logistics services to strengthen businesses\u2019 resilience in uncertain situations. Returning to Vietnam\u2019s exports, 2023 could be described as an unusual year for export value: it was only the second time in nearly 40 years of Doi Moi that exports recorded negative growth. How do you view this? Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang: Negative growth in export value in 2023 shows that reality differed fundamentally from the scenarios developed. Export markets can prove more uncertain and unpredictable than expected. Forecasts of market fluctuations have not achieved an adequate level of reliability, and responses to declining export markets have not been linked to appropriate risk contingency mechanisms. Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang Moreover, the export mix has essentially fallen a step behind export standards associated with the trends toward green transition, a circular economy, low-carbon commitments, organic products, and the commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. We must also consider the intense competition currently taking place in exports and the considerable ability to learn from one another within a short time. As a result, product life cycles are shortening, and technological advances are driving rapid product replacement. In addition, countries\u2019 monetary tightening policies to combat inflation and the spread of armed conflicts are creating difficulties for exports. Vietnam\u2019s export mix reveals weaknesses in sustainability and considerable dependence on the foreign-invested sector. Negative export growth signals the need for a comprehensive reassessment of Vietnam\u2019s export model, encompassing strategy, policies, mechanisms, and businesses. This shortcoming requires in-depth analysis to identify more effective solutions for the next stage. \u201cNecessity is the mother of invention,\u201d and these shortcomings will provide opportunities to develop new approaches to tapping the substantial export potential that remains. Alongside existing markets, many markets have yet to be adequately tapped, such as the market for Halal-standard products, with 1.9 billion consumers worldwide. In ASEAN alone, there are nearly 300 million consumers who follow Halal standards, yet this market remains largely underdeveloped. The supply of more than 10,000 OCOP products rated three stars or higher has also yet to be tapped for exports. Opportunities to export agricultural products at high prices and in large volumes remain\u2026 These are sources of potential and growth drivers that need to be tapped. The rapidly rising number of international visitors to Vietnam is also a resource that generates considerable value through on-site exports. Against this backdrop, what issues need attention in Vietnam\u2019s exports in 2024? Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang: There will be several important aspects of exports in 2024. First, standards relating to greening, net emissions reductions, low carbon, organic products, and the circular economy will become core requirements for export goods. Countries\u2019 policies have applied these requirements to varying degrees, from partial to widespread implementation. These regulations increase compliance costs, and exporters need plans to meet them in order to tap market opportunities in new directions. Competition in these market segments will be no less intense. Particular attention must be paid to meeting these requirements when exporting products in which Vietnam has an advantage, such as textiles and garments and agricultural products. Demand for green, clean, tasty, and attractive products will significantly shape import trends. Trade policy will directly […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[724],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-76949","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economic-information","post-no-thumbnail"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76949","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=76949"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76949\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=76949"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=76949"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=76949"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}