{"id":76857,"date":"2024-04-08T09:54:00","date_gmt":"2024-04-08T02:54:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/press-information-on-the-national-scientific-conference-vietnams-economy-in-2023-and-outlook-for-2024-stimulating-aggregate-demand-for-economic-growth-in-a-new-context-and-the-launch-of\/"},"modified":"2024-04-08T09:54:00","modified_gmt":"2024-04-08T02:54:00","slug":"press-information-on-the-national-scientific-conference-vietnams-economy-in-2023-and-outlook-for-2024-stimulating-aggregate-demand-for-economic-growth-in-a-new-context-and-the-launch-of","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/press-information-on-the-national-scientific-conference-vietnams-economy-in-2023-and-outlook-for-2024-stimulating-aggregate-demand-for-economic-growth-in-a-new-context-and-the-launch-of\/","title":{"rendered":"Press Information on the National Scientific Conference: Vietnam\u2019s Economy in 2023 and Outlook for 2024, “Stimulating Aggregate Demand for Economic Growth in a New Context,” and the Launch of the Vietnam Annual Economic Review 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING (MOET)<\/strong>
National Economics University (NEU)<\/strong>
————<\/strong><\/p>\n

Press Information on the<\/strong> National Scientific Conference:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Vietnam\u2019s Economy in 2023 and Outlook for 2024<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cStimulating Aggregate Demand for Economic Growth in a New Context\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

& Launch of <\/em><\/strong>V<\/em><\/strong>ietnam Annual Economic Review 2023<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Following its annual practice, NEU, in collaboration with the Central Economic Commission and the National Assembly\u2019s Economic Committee, is organizing a national scientific conference to assess Vietnam\u2019s economy in 2023 and its outlook for 2024, and to launch the University\u2019s publication, Vietnam Annual Economic Review 2023<\/em>. The theme of both the conference and this year\u2019s annual publication is \u201cVietnam\u2019s Economy in 2023 and Outlook for 2024: <\/strong>Stimulating Aggregate Demand for Economic Growth in a New Context<\/strong>.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

I. Background<\/strong><\/p>\n

In 2023, the global economy continued to face considerable instability: global inflation remained high, central banks continued to pursue tight monetary policy, many major economies experienced slower growth, and political factors such as the Russia-Ukraine war remained highly complex, while the Israel-Hamas conflict grew increasingly tense.<\/p>\n

Against this backdrop, Vietnam\u2019s economy also faced numerous challenges. Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.05% in 2023 compared with 2022, exceeding only the growth rates of 2.87% and 2.56% recorded in 2020 and 2021, respectively, during the 2011-2023 period. In 2023, the industry and construction sector showed no positive signs of recovery, growing by only 3.74% year over year (low compared with average growth of 8.6% in 2015-2019). Within this sector, processing and manufacturing grew by 3.62% year over year, also the lowest annual growth rate in the 2011-2023 period. Inventories across processing and manufacturing increased by 19.8% compared with the same point a year earlier (when the corresponding increase was 13.9%). Meanwhile, the real estate market experienced numerous difficulties and challenges. Transaction volumes declined, and demand for purchases remained low as investor sentiment weakened and investors adopted a wait-and-see approach, leaving overall market liquidity without signs of recovery. Total transactions over the four quarters of 2023 reached approximately 18,600 units from projects in the primary market, equivalent to only 17% of the level in 2018, before the Covid-19 pandemic.<\/p>\n

Total realized investment across the economy at current prices increased by only 6.2% in 2023 compared with the previous year (versus 11.2% in 2022). Within state-sector investment, realized investment funded by the state budget in 2023 reached only 85.3% of the annual plan and increased by 21.2% year over year. Realized investment from the non-state sector grew by only 2.7%, far below the 8.9% increase in 2022. Similarly, realized foreign direct investment (FDI) in Vietnam in 2023 increased by only 5.4% (versus 13.9% in 2022). Meanwhile, spending momentum also tended to decline. For 2023 as a whole, total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue increased by only 9.6% year over year (versus 20% in 2022), or 7.1% excluding price effects (versus 15.8% in 2022). Declining household incomes led to reduced consumer demand for goods. Data for 2023 show that final consumption increased by only 3.52% year over year (versus 7.09% in 2022). In tourism services, despite efforts to attract international visitors back to Vietnam, international arrivals in 2023 were estimated at 12.6 million, 3.4 times the previous year\u2019s figure but still only 70% of the level in 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic.<\/p>\n

In international trade, financial issues in Europe and the United States, such as public debt and rising interest rates, contributed to slowing the economy and reducing global aggregate demand, significantly affecting countries with export-led growth strategies such as Vietnam. For 2023 as a whole, export and import values both fell sharply from the previous year, declining by 4.4% and 8.9%, respectively, as demand weakened across Vietnam\u2019s major markets, including the United States, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the European Union (EU), and several East Asian countries. Exports to the U.S. market recorded the largest decline, at 11.6%, while imports from South Korea fell by 15.5%, the largest decrease among major markets. This caused output of several of Vietnam\u2019s key industrial products to fall sharply compared with 2022.<\/p>\n

By the end of 2023, credit to the economy had grown by 13.5% (compared with 14.5% in the previous year), against a credit growth target of 14%. Vietnam\u2019s economy is highly open, and business operations depend heavily on the international economy. Meanwhile, the global economy remains subject to considerable uncertainty, and inflation, although trending downward, remains high. Declining demand for trade and investment has affected domestic enterprises\u2019 investment activities. Regarding access to capital, some groups of customers need loans but do not meet lending requirements, including small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), while others, such as real estate enterprises, face obstacles related to legal procedures. Thus, amid these broader difficulties, domestic demand for investment, production, business operations, and consumption has declined, leading to a corresponding decrease in demand for credit. Although the two-year 2022\u20132023 economic recovery support package has reached the end of its implementation period, disbursements remain very low and have not provided timely support to address the difficulties facing enterprises.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

These figures indicate a sharp decline in aggregate demand in Vietnam\u2019s economy, as all three components\u2014investment, exports, and consumption\u2014weakened. Aggregate demand plays an important role in determining the level of economic activity and employment in an economy. Declining aggregate demand indicates a risk of recession, affecting overall economic growth and causing consequences such as falling industrial production, rising unemployment, and reduced household incomes and spending. Restoring aggregate demand was therefore an important task for Vietnam in 2023. This requires the Government and relevant ministries, commissions, and agencies to urgently take appropriate, timely measures to strengthen growth drivers on the aggregate demand side, thereby restoring aggregate demand and laying the groundwork for economic development in a new context.<\/p>\n

Therefore, in addition to providing an overall assessment of the economy, the Vietnam Annual Economic Review 2023 will focus on growth drivers on the aggregate demand side, with the aim of restoring aggregate demand and economic growth. The research will provide an important foundation for developing key policy recommendations for economic growth in a new context.<\/p>\n

II. <\/strong>Conference Objectives and Content<\/strong><\/p>\n

The conference will comprehensively review Vietnam\u2019s economy in 2023, covering achievements and remaining shortcomings, assessing their causes, and analyzing opportunities and challenges. It will then propose directions and policy recommendations for economic management in 2024 and subsequent years. The conference will also assess the current state of aggregate demand and its components; achievements, remaining limitations, and their causes; and the contributions of aggregate demand components to economic growth. On this basis, it will propose directions and policy recommendations for economic management in 2024 and subsequent years, as well as policy recommendations to stimulate aggregate demand toward sustainable economic growth in a new context.<\/p>\n

With these objectives, the conference will focus on the following topics:<\/em><\/p>\n

– Clarifying the global economic context and its impact on Vietnam\u2019s economy in 2023;<\/p>\n

– Assessing developments in Vietnam\u2019s economy in 2023 across its main sectors (the real sector, the monetary and financial sector, and the fiscal sector); achievements and limitations; and the causes of those limitations;<\/p>\n

– Assessing the current state of aggregate demand and its components (investment, consumption, and net exports), achievements, remaining limitations, and their causes. Assessing the contributions of these components to economic growth.<\/p>\n

– Analyzing opportunities and challenges in 2024; assessing Vietnam\u2019s economic outlook for 2024; and, on that basis, recommending policies to stimulate aggregate demand and contribute to sustainable growth in a new context.<\/p>\n

III<\/strong>. <\/strong>Time<\/strong> and Venue<\/strong><\/p>\n

– Date: Wednesday, April 17, 2024.<\/p>\n

– Venue: Hall A2, NEU, 207 Giai Phong, Hai Ba Trung, Hanoi.<\/p>\n

IV. Participants<\/strong><\/p>\n

The publication\u2019s co-editors, Prof. Dr. Pham Hong Chuong and Prof. Dr. To Trung Thanh of NEU, will deliver presentations and participate in discussions at the conference;<\/p>\n

And the following keynote speakers:<\/p>\n

– Prof. Dr. Pham Hong Chuong, President of NEU<\/p>\n

– Prof. Dr. To Trung Thanh, Head of the Department of Research Management, NEU<\/p>\n

– Shantanu Chakraborty, Country Director for Vietnam, Asian Development Bank (ADB)<\/p>\n

– Dorsati Madani, Senior Economist, World Bank<\/p>\n

– Gulmira Asanbaeva, Senior Economist, International Labour Organization (ILO)<\/p>\n

– Phan Duc Hieu, Standing Member of the National Assembly\u2019s Economic Committee<\/p>\n

– Dr. Can Van Luc, Chief Economist and Director of the Training and Research Institute, Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam (BIDV)<\/p>\n

– Dr. Dang Duc Anh, Deputy Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management<\/p>\n

– Dau Anh Tuan, Deputy Secretary General and Head of the Legal Department, Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry<\/p>\n

– Assoc. Prof. Dr. Vu Sy Cuong, Academy of Finance<\/p>\n

The conference will bring together 300 scholars from international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank (WB), the Asian Development Bank (ADB), and others, as well as central agencies, universities, and research institutes in Vietnam and abroad, including the Central Economic Commission, the National Assembly\u2019s Economic Committee, the Government Office, the National Financial Supervisory Commission, the State Bank of Vietnam, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Planning and Investment, the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences, and research institutes and universities specializing in economics and business administration; economic experts; business representatives; and journalists.<\/p>\n

The press conference to launch the Vietnam Annual Economic Review will be held at 8:00 a.m. on the same day in Room B101-102, Building A2, NEU.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

For an introduction to the publication Vietnam Annual Economic Review 2023: Stimulating Aggregate Demand for Economic Growth in a New Context, see HERE<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

The event program is attached to this press information.<\/p>\n

For information about the conference, please contact:<\/em><\/p>\n

MSc. Vu Phuong Linh, Department of Communications, NEU, mobile: 0973.256.257, email: linhvp@neu.edu.vn<\/p>\n

MSc. Bui Huy Hoan, Department of Research Management, NEU, mobile: 0965.666.857, email: hoanbh@neu.edu.vn<\/p>\n

Thank you for your attention.<\/p>\n

Organizing Committee<\/strong><\/p>\n

1. Conference program.pdf<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

This is an automated translation. If you notice any errors, please contact the Department of Communications, National Economics University at phongtruyenthong@neu.edu.vn<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING (MOET) National Economics University (NEU) ———— Press Information on the National Scientific Conference: Vietnam\u2019s Economy in 2023 and Outlook for 2024 \u201cStimulating Aggregate Demand for Economic Growth in a New Context\u201d & Launch of Vietnam Annual Economic Review 2023 Following its annual practice, NEU, in collaboration with the Central Economic Commission and the National Assembly\u2019s Economic Committee, is organizing a national scientific conference to assess Vietnam\u2019s economy in 2023 and its outlook for 2024, and to launch the University\u2019s publication, Vietnam Annual Economic Review 2023. The theme of both the conference and this year\u2019s annual publication is \u201cVietnam\u2019s Economy in 2023 and Outlook for 2024: Stimulating Aggregate Demand for Economic Growth in a New Context.\u201d I. Background In 2023, the global economy continued to face considerable instability: global inflation remained high, central banks continued to pursue tight monetary policy, many major economies experienced slower growth, and political factors such as the Russia-Ukraine war remained highly complex, while the Israel-Hamas conflict grew increasingly tense. Against this backdrop, Vietnam\u2019s economy also faced numerous challenges. Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.05% in 2023 compared with 2022, exceeding only the growth rates of 2.87% and 2.56% recorded in 2020 and 2021, respectively, during the 2011-2023 period. In 2023, the industry and construction sector showed no positive signs of recovery, growing by only 3.74% year over year (low compared with average growth of 8.6% in 2015-2019). Within this sector, processing and manufacturing grew by 3.62% year over year, also the lowest annual growth rate in the 2011-2023 period. Inventories across processing and manufacturing increased by 19.8% compared with the same point a year earlier (when the corresponding increase was 13.9%). Meanwhile, the real estate market experienced numerous difficulties and challenges. Transaction volumes declined, and demand for purchases remained low as investor sentiment weakened and investors adopted a wait-and-see approach, leaving overall market liquidity without signs of recovery. Total transactions over the four quarters of 2023 reached approximately 18,600 units from projects in the primary market, equivalent to only 17% of the level in 2018, before the Covid-19 pandemic. Total realized investment across the economy at current prices increased by only 6.2% in 2023 compared with the previous year (versus 11.2% in 2022). Within state-sector investment, realized investment funded by the state budget in 2023 reached only 85.3% of the annual plan and increased by 21.2% year over year. Realized investment from the non-state sector grew by only 2.7%, far below the 8.9% increase in 2022. Similarly, realized foreign direct investment (FDI) in Vietnam in 2023 increased by only 5.4% (versus 13.9% in 2022). Meanwhile, spending momentum also tended to decline. For 2023 as a whole, total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue increased by only 9.6% year over year (versus 20% in 2022), or 7.1% excluding price effects (versus 15.8% in 2022). Declining household incomes led to reduced consumer demand for goods. Data for 2023 show that final consumption increased by only 3.52% year over year (versus 7.09% in 2022). In tourism services, despite efforts to attract international visitors back to Vietnam, international arrivals in 2023 were estimated at 12.6 million, 3.4 times the previous year\u2019s figure but still only 70% of the level in 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic. In international trade, financial issues in Europe and the United States, such as public debt and rising interest rates, contributed to slowing the economy and reducing global aggregate demand, significantly affecting countries with export-led growth strategies such as Vietnam. For 2023 as a whole, export and import values both fell sharply from the previous year, declining by 4.4% and 8.9%, respectively, as demand weakened across Vietnam\u2019s major markets, including the United States, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the European Union (EU), and several East Asian countries. Exports to the U.S. market recorded the largest decline, at 11.6%, while imports from South Korea fell by 15.5%, the largest decrease among major markets. This caused output of several of Vietnam\u2019s key industrial products to fall sharply compared with 2022. By the end of 2023, credit to the economy had grown by 13.5% (compared with 14.5% in the previous year), against a credit growth target of 14%. Vietnam\u2019s economy is highly open, and business operations depend heavily on the international economy. Meanwhile, the global economy remains subject to considerable uncertainty, and inflation, although trending downward, remains high. Declining demand for trade and investment has affected domestic enterprises\u2019 investment activities. Regarding access to capital, some groups of customers need loans but do not meet lending requirements, including small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), while others, such as real estate enterprises, face obstacles related to legal procedures. Thus, amid these broader difficulties, domestic demand for investment, production, business operations, and consumption has declined, leading to a corresponding decrease in demand for credit. Although the two-year 2022\u20132023 economic recovery support package has reached the end of its implementation period, disbursements remain very low and have not provided timely support to address the difficulties facing enterprises. These figures indicate a sharp decline in aggregate demand in Vietnam\u2019s economy, as all three components\u2014investment, exports, and consumption\u2014weakened. Aggregate demand plays an important role in determining the level of economic activity and employment in an economy. Declining aggregate demand indicates a risk of recession, affecting overall economic growth and causing consequences such as falling industrial production, rising unemployment, and reduced household incomes and spending. Restoring aggregate demand was therefore an important task for Vietnam in 2023. This requires the Government and relevant ministries, commissions, and agencies to urgently take appropriate, timely measures to strengthen growth drivers on the aggregate demand side, thereby restoring aggregate demand and laying the groundwork for economic development in a new context. Therefore, in addition to providing an overall assessment of the economy, the Vietnam Annual Economic Review 2023 will focus on growth drivers on the aggregate demand side, with the aim of restoring aggregate demand and economic growth. The research will provide an important foundation for developing key policy recommendations […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":36327,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[547],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-76857","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-notification"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76857","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=76857"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76857\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/36327"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=76857"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=76857"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=76857"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}