{"id":76329,"date":"2024-08-01T08:44:00","date_gmt":"2024-08-01T01:44:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/tinnhanhchungkhoan-vn-prof-dr-to-trung-thanh-pay-greater-attention-to-the-quality-of-economic-growth\/"},"modified":"2024-08-01T08:44:00","modified_gmt":"2024-08-01T01:44:00","slug":"tinnhanhchungkhoan-vn-prof-dr-to-trung-thanh-pay-greater-attention-to-the-quality-of-economic-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/tinnhanhchungkhoan-vn-prof-dr-to-trung-thanh-pay-greater-attention-to-the-quality-of-economic-growth\/","title":{"rendered":"Tinnhanhchungkhoan.vn: Prof. Dr. To Trung Thanh: Pay Greater Attention to the Quality of Economic Growth"},"content":{"rendered":"
Given the fairly encouraging signs in the first half of the year, Prof. Dr. To Trung Thanh of National Economics University (NEU) believes that this year’s economic growth target of 6\u20136.5% is achievable.<\/div>\n
\n
\"Prof.<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

Prof. Dr. To Trung Thanh (NEU).<\/em><\/p>\n

With many positive signs in the first half of this year, do you think full-year GDP growth will meet the target?<\/em><\/p>\n

The National Assembly set this year’s economic growth target at 6\u20136.5%. Given the highly favorable developments since the beginning of the year, the Government recently issued Resolution 93\/NQ-CP (dated June 18, 2024) on key tasks and solutions to promote growth, control inflation and stabilize the macroeconomy. In the Resolution, the Government expressed its determination to strive for GDP growth at the upper end of the target range (6.5%).<\/p>\n

This is a very difficult task, but it is achievable. The more important issue, however, is the quality of growth. High GDP growth does not necessarily make a country prosperous, because a country’s actual wealth is measured by gross national income (GNI), national disposable income (NDI) and savings, rather than GDP.<\/p>\n

The gap between Vietnam’s GNI and GDP has tended to widen, from about 1.4% in 2000 to approximately 5% in 2023. While foreign investors transferred only about USD 0.45 billion in profits out of Vietnam in 2000, this figure is estimated to have risen to USD 19 billion in 2022 and as much as USD 21 billion in 2023, exceeding remittances sent to the country (USD 19 billion). This phenomenon could adversely affect Vietnam’s savings rate and fixed asset accumulation, with implications for long-term growth prospects.<\/p>\n

It can be said that since the outbreak of COVID-19, economic growth has slowed while the quality of growth has not improved. The quality of economic growth is assessed across three dimensions: total factor productivity (TFP), labor productivity and the economy’s capacity for digital transformation. In the post-COVID-19 period, all three dimensions of Vietnam’s economy have tended to decline.<\/p>\n

Does the improvement in Vietnam’s TFP in recent years indicate that the economy’s efficiency is improving?<\/em><\/p>\n

TFP measures how efficiently fixed assets and labor, or tangible factors, are used as a result of intangible factors such as technological innovation, production rationalization, management improvements, and higher workforce qualifications and skills. In other words, with the same quantity of inputs, an enterprise or economy with higher TFP will produce more output, and vice versa.<\/p>\n

Vietnam’s TFP growth averaged 2.77% per year over 2015\u20132019, the highest in the region, indicating a significant improvement in the economy’s operational efficiency. However, Vietnam’s TFP growth began to decline over the past two years, even turning negative at -1.36% in 2022 and falling further into negative territory in 2023 (-2%). This indicates a downward trend in the economy’s efficiency.<\/p>\n

Labor productivity is one of the 15 socioeconomic development indicators approved annually by the National Assembly, but it has fallen short of its target for many years. Does this indicate that the economy’s efficiency has not improved?<\/em><\/p>\n

Before the pandemic, Vietnam’s labor productivity grew at a relatively high rate, averaging 6.35% per year over 2016\u20132019. This growth rate was higher than that of most countries in the region, second only to China. However, in the post-COVID-19 period, Vietnam’s labor productivity has shown signs of decline, meaning that its gap with ASEAN countries and others in the region has not only failed to narrow but has tended to widen. In 2023, Vietnam’s labor productivity was only 1\/7.6 of Singapore’s, 1\/3 of Malaysia’s and 1\/1.8 of China’s, exceeding only that of Cambodia and Myanmar.<\/p>\n

In the Fourth Industrial Revolution, labor productivity is a decisive factor in economic growth. Is this why the Government pays particular attention to this issue?<\/em><\/p>\n

Almost every year, the Prime Minister chairs a conference or forum on labor productivity. On May 26, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh chaired the 2024 Forum on Enhancing National Labor Productivity to hear proposals on increasing labor productivity from workers and organizations representing workers (Trade Unions) at domestic and foreign enterprises.<\/p>\n

The aim is for labor productivity to become an important driver of rapid, sustainable growth by 2030, effectively leveraging the opportunities of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. The main pillars include improving the quality of market economy institutions, enhancing the quality of human resources, promoting regional linkages, and advancing science and technology, innovation and digital transformation. To this end, the Prime Minister approved the National Program on Increasing Labor Productivity Through 2030 (Decision 1305\/Q\u0110-TTg dated November 8, 2023). The program targets average annual labor productivity growth of over 6.5% during 2023\u20132030 (including 6.5\u20137.0% per year in processing and manufacturing; 7.0\u20137.5% per year in agriculture, forestry and fisheries; and 7.0\u20137.5% per year in services), with Vietnam ranking among the top three ASEAN countries in labor productivity growth by 2030.<\/p>\n

Calculations indicate that achieving these targets requires the proportion of enterprises engaged in innovation to increase by an average of 15% per year during 2023\u20132025 and reach 20% by 2030; the proportion of trained workers holding degrees or certificates to reach 30% in 2025 and 35\u201340% in 2030; and TFP to reach approximately 45% of GDP in 2025 and approximately 50% of GDP in 2030. These are very ambitious targets that will not be easy to achieve without comprehensive solutions.<\/p>\n

By Manh Bon<\/a>\/ baodautu.vn<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

Link: https:\/\/www.tinnhanhchungkhoan.vn\/quan-tam-hon-nua-chat-luong-tang-truong-kinh-te-post348046.html<\/a><\/p>\n

This is an automated translation. If you notice any errors, please contact the Department of Communications, National Economics University at phongtruyenthong@neu.edu.vn<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Given the fairly encouraging signs in the first half of the year, Prof. Dr. To Trung Thanh of National Economics University (NEU) believes that this year’s economic growth target of 6\u20136.5% is achievable. Prof. Dr. To Trung Thanh (NEU). With many positive signs in the first half of this year, do you think full-year GDP growth will meet the target? The National Assembly set this year’s economic growth target at 6\u20136.5%. Given the highly favorable developments since the beginning of the year, the Government recently issued Resolution 93\/NQ-CP (dated June 18, 2024) on key tasks and solutions to promote growth, control inflation and stabilize the macroeconomy. In the Resolution, the Government expressed its determination to strive for GDP growth at the upper end of the target range (6.5%). This is a very difficult task, but it is achievable. The more important issue, however, is the quality of growth. High GDP growth does not necessarily make a country prosperous, because a country’s actual wealth is measured by gross national income (GNI), national disposable income (NDI) and savings, rather than GDP. The gap between Vietnam’s GNI and GDP has tended to widen, from about 1.4% in 2000 to approximately 5% in 2023. While foreign investors transferred only about USD 0.45 billion in profits out of Vietnam in 2000, this figure is estimated to have risen to USD 19 billion in 2022 and as much as USD 21 billion in 2023, exceeding remittances sent to the country (USD 19 billion). This phenomenon could adversely affect Vietnam’s savings rate and fixed asset accumulation, with implications for long-term growth prospects. It can be said that since the outbreak of COVID-19, economic growth has slowed while the quality of growth has not improved. The quality of economic growth is assessed across three dimensions: total factor productivity (TFP), labor productivity and the economy’s capacity for digital transformation. In the post-COVID-19 period, all three dimensions of Vietnam’s economy have tended to decline. Does the improvement in Vietnam’s TFP in recent years indicate that the economy’s efficiency is improving? TFP measures how efficiently fixed assets and labor, or tangible factors, are used as a result of intangible factors such as technological innovation, production rationalization, management improvements, and higher workforce qualifications and skills. In other words, with the same quantity of inputs, an enterprise or economy with higher TFP will produce more output, and vice versa. Vietnam’s TFP growth averaged 2.77% per year over 2015\u20132019, the highest in the region, indicating a significant improvement in the economy’s operational efficiency. However, Vietnam’s TFP growth began to decline over the past two years, even turning negative at -1.36% in 2022 and falling further into negative territory in 2023 (-2%). This indicates a downward trend in the economy’s efficiency. Labor productivity is one of the 15 socioeconomic development indicators approved annually by the National Assembly, but it has fallen short of its target for many years. Does this indicate that the economy’s efficiency has not improved? Before the pandemic, Vietnam’s labor productivity grew at a relatively high rate, averaging 6.35% per year over 2016\u20132019. This growth rate was higher than that of most countries in the region, second only to China. However, in the post-COVID-19 period, Vietnam’s labor productivity has shown signs of decline, meaning that its gap with ASEAN countries and others in the region has not only failed to narrow but has tended to widen. In 2023, Vietnam’s labor productivity was only 1\/7.6 of Singapore’s, 1\/3 of Malaysia’s and 1\/1.8 of China’s, exceeding only that of Cambodia and Myanmar. In the Fourth Industrial Revolution, labor productivity is a decisive factor in economic growth. Is this why the Government pays particular attention to this issue? Almost every year, the Prime Minister chairs a conference or forum on labor productivity. On May 26, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh chaired the 2024 Forum on Enhancing National Labor Productivity to hear proposals on increasing labor productivity from workers and organizations representing workers (Trade Unions) at domestic and foreign enterprises. The aim is for labor productivity to become an important driver of rapid, sustainable growth by 2030, effectively leveraging the opportunities of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. The main pillars include improving the quality of market economy institutions, enhancing the quality of human resources, promoting regional linkages, and advancing science and technology, innovation and digital transformation. To this end, the Prime Minister approved the National Program on Increasing Labor Productivity Through 2030 (Decision 1305\/Q\u0110-TTg dated November 8, 2023). The program targets average annual labor productivity growth of over 6.5% during 2023\u20132030 (including 6.5\u20137.0% per year in processing and manufacturing; 7.0\u20137.5% per year in agriculture, forestry and fisheries; and 7.0\u20137.5% per year in services), with Vietnam ranking among the top three ASEAN countries in labor productivity growth by 2030. Calculations indicate that achieving these targets requires the proportion of enterprises engaged in innovation to increase by an average of 15% per year during 2023\u20132025 and reach 20% by 2030; the proportion of trained workers holding degrees or certificates to reach 30% in 2025 and 35\u201340% in 2030; and TFP to reach approximately 45% of GDP in 2025 and approximately 50% of GDP in 2030. These are very ambitious targets that will not be easy to achieve without comprehensive solutions. By Manh Bon\/ baodautu.vn Link: https:\/\/www.tinnhanhchungkhoan.vn\/quan-tam-hon-nua-chat-luong-tang-truong-kinh-te-post348046.html This is an automated translation. If you notice any errors, please contact the Department of Communications, National Economics University at phongtruyenthong@neu.edu.vn.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[724],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-76329","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economic-information","post-no-thumbnail"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76329","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=76329"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76329\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=76329"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=76329"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=76329"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}