{"id":75166,"date":"2025-04-14T14:29:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-14T07:29:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/on-the-sidelines-of-the-conference-on-vietnams-economy-in-2024-and-outlook-for-2025-prof-dr-to-trung-thanh-harnessing-domestic-strengths-for-high-economic-growth-in-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-04-14T14:29:00","modified_gmt":"2025-04-14T07:29:00","slug":"on-the-sidelines-of-the-conference-on-vietnams-economy-in-2024-and-outlook-for-2025-prof-dr-to-trung-thanh-harnessing-domestic-strengths-for-high-economic-growth-in-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/on-the-sidelines-of-the-conference-on-vietnams-economy-in-2024-and-outlook-for-2025-prof-dr-to-trung-thanh-harnessing-domestic-strengths-for-high-economic-growth-in-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"On the Sidelines of the Conference on Vietnam\u2019s Economy in 2024 and Outlook for 2025: Prof. Dr. To Trung Thanh: Harnessing Domestic Strengths for High Economic Growth in 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

Speaking with a reporter, Prof. Dr. To Trung Thanh of National Economics University (NEU) said that unpredictable developments in the global economy also offer Vietnam an opportunity to harness domestic drivers, such as the private sector and domestic consumption, to pursue high growth in 2025 and subsequent years.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

How do you assess Vietnam\u2019s economic growth prospects in the current context?<\/em><\/p>\n

In 2024, Vietnam\u2019s economy recorded strong growth and returned to its pre-COVID growth trajectory of 2019. However, its growth model remained based on expansion in scale, with little improvement in the quality of growth. New growth drivers, such as innovation and the digital economy, still made limited contributions to growth.<\/p>\n

In addition, the economy remains vulnerable to global economic instability, while issues of environmental unsustainability persist.<\/p>\n

Given these characteristics of the economy, Vietnam must be very mindful of macroeconomic instability if it is to grow rapidly in the coming period. To achieve sustainable long-term growth and become a high-income country in 2045, economic institutional reform is essential; it could be described as the driving force behind new growth drivers.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

As you mentioned, institutional reform is an important driver of economic growth. Could you elaborate on this driver?<\/em><\/p>\n

Although Vietnam has improved its economic institutions in line with a socialist-oriented market economy and created a very favorable environment for production and business activities, certain limitations remain. In particular, the institutional framework still shows hesitation in respecting market principles, and traditional intervention measures continue to be used. In my view, these areas offer significant scope for institutional reform, both in the economy and in the state administrative apparatus. This will provide a foundation for economic growth in the next period.<\/p>\n

My recommendation is to develop an economic legal and institutional framework that continues to ensure the state\u2019s management role but, more importantly, supports private-sector development, abandoning the mindset of \u201cban what we cannot manage.\u201d<\/p>\n

Second, policy implementation capacity needs to be strengthened.<\/p>\n

Third, administrative controls should be minimized to create a transparent, equitable environment for all economic sectors to develop.<\/p>\n

One issue attracting considerable attention is the United States\u2019 imposition of tariffs on Vietnamese goods, with negotiations still underway. As an economist, what would you recommend if we do not secure a rate favorable to the economy?<\/em><\/p>\n

The United States\u2019 imposition of a 46% reciprocal tariff on Vietnamese goods (currently suspended for 90 days) could be a major shock if we fail to secure a favorable outcome in negotiations, because it affects both exports and the foreign direct investment (FDI) sector. These have been important sources of economic growth in recent years. Clearly, economic growth could therefore be severely affected, with implications not only for employment and incomes but also for macroeconomic instability, exchange rates, inflation, and domestic interest rates. Managing policy to ensure strong growth in the coming period will also be more challenging.<\/p>\n

Therefore, amid global instability and volatility, this is an opportunity for us to focus on the domestic economy. The private sector must be regarded as the most important economic sector for strengthening domestic capacity and building the flexibility needed to respond to global macroeconomic instability.<\/p>\n

At the same time, we need to diversify export markets. Vietnam currently has many free trade agreements (FTAs), and this is an opportunity to take advantage of them. Concentrating on a single market clearly leaves the economy vulnerable when instability arises.<\/p>\n

In addition, Vietnam needs to restructure its production chains and increase domestic production. Attention should also be given to stimulating domestic consumption and making it an important driver of economic growth.<\/p>\n

Current policies indicate that there is still room to boost domestic consumption through increased public spending or selective tax cuts. This is very important for increasing private consumption, strengthening the economy\u2019s domestic drivers, and supporting growth in the coming period.<\/p>\n

Thank you!<\/p>\n

Source: Banking Times<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

This is an automated translation. If you notice any errors, please contact the Department of Communications, National Economics University at phongtruyenthong@neu.edu.vn<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Speaking with a reporter, Prof. Dr. To Trung Thanh of National Economics University (NEU) said that unpredictable developments in the global economy also offer Vietnam an opportunity to harness domestic drivers, such as the private sector and domestic consumption, to pursue high growth in 2025 and subsequent years. How do you assess Vietnam\u2019s economic growth prospects in the current context? In 2024, Vietnam\u2019s economy recorded strong growth and returned to its pre-COVID growth trajectory of 2019. However, its growth model remained based on expansion in scale, with little improvement in the quality of growth. New growth drivers, such as innovation and the digital economy, still made limited contributions to growth. In addition, the economy remains vulnerable to global economic instability, while issues of environmental unsustainability persist. Given these characteristics of the economy, Vietnam must be very mindful of macroeconomic instability if it is to grow rapidly in the coming period. To achieve sustainable long-term growth and become a high-income country in 2045, economic institutional reform is essential; it could be described as the driving force behind new growth drivers. As you mentioned, institutional reform is an important driver of economic growth. Could you elaborate on this driver? Although Vietnam has improved its economic institutions in line with a socialist-oriented market economy and created a very favorable environment for production and business activities, certain limitations remain. In particular, the institutional framework still shows hesitation in respecting market principles, and traditional intervention measures continue to be used. In my view, these areas offer significant scope for institutional reform, both in the economy and in the state administrative apparatus. This will provide a foundation for economic growth in the next period. My recommendation is to develop an economic legal and institutional framework that continues to ensure the state\u2019s management role but, more importantly, supports private-sector development, abandoning the mindset of \u201cban what we cannot manage.\u201d Second, policy implementation capacity needs to be strengthened. Third, administrative controls should be minimized to create a transparent, equitable environment for all economic sectors to develop. One issue attracting considerable attention is the United States\u2019 imposition of tariffs on Vietnamese goods, with negotiations still underway. As an economist, what would you recommend if we do not secure a rate favorable to the economy? The United States\u2019 imposition of a 46% reciprocal tariff on Vietnamese goods (currently suspended for 90 days) could be a major shock if we fail to secure a favorable outcome in negotiations, because it affects both exports and the foreign direct investment (FDI) sector. These have been important sources of economic growth in recent years. Clearly, economic growth could therefore be severely affected, with implications not only for employment and incomes but also for macroeconomic instability, exchange rates, inflation, and domestic interest rates. Managing policy to ensure strong growth in the coming period will also be more challenging. Therefore, amid global instability and volatility, this is an opportunity for us to focus on the domestic economy. The private sector must be regarded as the most important economic sector for strengthening domestic capacity and building the flexibility needed to respond to global macroeconomic instability. At the same time, we need to diversify export markets. Vietnam currently has many free trade agreements (FTAs), and this is an opportunity to take advantage of them. Concentrating on a single market clearly leaves the economy vulnerable when instability arises. In addition, Vietnam needs to restructure its production chains and increase domestic production. Attention should also be given to stimulating domestic consumption and making it an important driver of economic growth. Current policies indicate that there is still room to boost domestic consumption through increased public spending or selective tax cuts. This is very important for increasing private consumption, strengthening the economy\u2019s domestic drivers, and supporting growth in the coming period. Thank you! Source: Banking Times This is an automated translation. If you notice any errors, please contact the Department of Communications, National Economics University at phongtruyenthong@neu.edu.vn.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":45714,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[724,169],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-75166","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economic-information","category-latest-news"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75166","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=75166"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75166\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/45714"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=75166"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=75166"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=75166"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}