{"id":63327,"date":"2026-04-24T09:00:58","date_gmt":"2026-04-24T02:00:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/improving-the-quality-of-the-economy-is-a-top-priority\/"},"modified":"2026-04-24T16:16:52","modified_gmt":"2026-04-24T09:16:52","slug":"improving-the-quality-of-the-economy-is-a-top-priority","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/improving-the-quality-of-the-economy-is-a-top-priority\/","title":{"rendered":"Improving the quality of the economy is a top priority"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

With the global economy becoming increasingly uncertain and tensions in the Middle East escalating, Vietnam aims for a growth rate of 10% or more, reflecting a strong political commitment to accelerate from the outset of the new development cycle.<\/em><\/p>\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n

Prof. To Trung Thanh, Head of the Research Management Department, Senior Lecturer at National Economics University<\/em><\/p>\n\n

Reporter from Nhan Dan Newspaper interviews Prof. To Trung Thanh, Head of the Research Management Department, Senior Lecturer at National Economics University on this issue.<\/p>\n\n

The Central Role of Institutional Reform<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

Reporter: National Economics University has just released the Annual Vietnam Economic Review 2025 and the economic outlook for 2026. What are the noteworthy highlights, sir?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n

Prof. To Trung Thanh: <\/strong>The year 2026 is identified as the starting point for the 2026-2030 development phase with a goal of breakthrough growth, with the National Assembly setting a GDP growth target of 10% or more. To achieve this goal, the Government is directing growth based on two main drivers: the industrial-construction sector and services, with growth rates of approximately 12% and 11%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n

In this context, the processing and manufacturing industry continues to play a pivotal role in the industrialization process, while the service sector is expected to grow strongly thanks to the recovery of consumption and the development of high value-added industries such as finance, logistics, and tourism. The agricultural sector maintains stable growth, serving as a pillar to ensure economic and social security.<\/p>\n\n

In addition to scale objectives, the 2026 development strategy particularly emphasizes improving growth quality. Indicators on the digital economy (contributing approximately 14.5% of GDP) and labor productivity (increasing by about 8.5%) are identified as key factors to ensure the sustainability of growth in the medium and long term. This indicates a shift in the growth model from being capital and labor-based to technology, innovation, and digital transformation-based.<\/p>\n\n

A highlight of the 2026 outlook is the central role of institutional reform. The strategic resolutions issued in 2025 lay the foundation for a comprehensive reform program, perfecting the economic institutions and shaping a new growth model for Vietnam in the new phase.<\/p>\n\n

Prominent among these are Resolution 57-NQ\/TW, Resolution 59-NQ\/TW, Resolution 66-NQ\/TW, Resolution 68-NQ\/TW, and Resolution 79-NQ\/TW. If implemented synchronously and effectively, these reforms could create breakthroughs in productivity, improve the business investment environment, and expand the long-term growth potential.<\/p>\n\n

Reporter: The economic outlook for Vietnam in 2026 is also significantly influenced by the international economic context, particularly the situation in the Middle East, isn’t it?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n

Prof. To Trung Thanh:<\/strong> In the short term, achieving Vietnam’s high growth targets faces many policy constraints. Specifically, the monetary policy space is narrowed due to inflationary pressures, exchange rate fluctuations, and inherent risks in the financial-banking system. Therefore, monetary policy needs to prioritize macroeconomic stability and system safety while selectively supporting priority sectors.<\/p>\n\n

In this context, fiscal policy is expected to play a leading role in promoting growth in 2026. The main direction is targeted expansion, focusing on increasing development investment, particularly in strategic infrastructure such as transportation, energy, digital transformation, and green infrastructure. At the same time, tax policies are adjusted to support businesses and the private sector, while still ensuring fiscal discipline and public debt safety. Thus, fiscal policy gradually shifts from a supportive role to actively leading growth.<\/p>\n\n

The economic outlook for Vietnam in 2026 is also significantly influenced by the international economic context. Global trade decline following the “front-loading” export effect in 2025 may slow down Vietnam’s export growth, while increasing trade defense measures pose risks to export goods.<\/p>\n\n

FDI inflows are expected to continue shifting into Southeast Asia, with Vietnam being a key destination due to political stability and competitive costs. Another significant risk factor is commodity price volatility, especially energy prices. Rising oil prices can exert significant pressure on inflation, exchange rates, and the macroeconomic balance, while limiting policy maneuverability. This necessitates close coordination between fiscal and monetary policies to both control inflation and support growth.<\/p>\n\n

Enhancing Growth Quality<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

Reporter: Despite achieving impressive growth rates in recent periods, the quality of Vietnam’s economic growth still reveals structural limitations. How should this issue be addressed?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n

Prof. To Trung Thanh:<\/strong> Given the macroeconomic orientations setting a breakthrough GDP growth target of 10% per year or more for the 2026-2030 period, improving the quality of the economy must be a top priority. The main driver must come from enhancing total factor productivity (TFP), promoting growth through technological advancement and efficient resource utilization instead of relying solely on capital intensity.<\/p>\n\n

Accordingly, the contribution rate of TFP to growth needs to be increased to over 55%, accompanied by improving the capital utilization coefficient (ICOR) through accelerating public investment disbursement. The economy needs to strongly shift towards the “3I” model, including: Investment, Innovation, and Invention, to achieve autonomy in core technologies and expand the scale of the digital economy.<\/p>\n\n

Regarding the technology pillar, selective industrial policies and technological leapfrogging into fields with short cycles should be implemented to leverage latecomer advantages. Instead of competing in basic research, Vietnam should focus on practical AI applications in industries with existing knowledge and data, while building sovereign industrial data spaces for safe data exchange among enterprises.<\/p>\n\n

Reporter: The digital economy plays a crucial role in the goal of enhancing growth quality. What solutions are needed to promote the development of the digital economy in the new era, sir?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n

Prof. To Trung Thanh:<\/strong> The orientation for the development of Vietnam’s digital economy by 2030 should not be viewed merely as the digitization of existing activities, but as a structural transformation where digital technology becomes a core production factor, determining productivity, growth quality, and national competitiveness.<\/p>\n\n

To realize the goal of the digital economy accounting for approximately 30% of GDP by 2030, the development model must be based on three main pillars.<\/p>\n\n

These are: the core digital economy (ICT) must shift from outsourcing to mastering technology; the sectoral digital economy needs to be deeply integrated into the value chain, with financial-banking, retail, logistics, and agriculture sectors transitioning from surface technology application to restructuring operational models based on data and AI; digital governance must become the institutional foundation for the digital economy.<\/p>\n\n

These three pillars can only be effective when placed in the context of technological breakthroughs and development space, including the development of digital infrastructure, data centers, and the formation of digital growth poles in major cities, while also spreading to localities. Thus, the digital economy is not only a growth driver but also a tool to bridge regional development gaps.<\/p>\n\n

Reporter: Thank you very much, sir!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n

Source: Nhan Dan Newspaper<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

With the global economy becoming increasingly uncertain and tensions in the Middle East escalating, Vietnam aims for a growth rate of 10% or more, reflecting a strong political commitment to accelerate from the outset of the new development cycle. Prof. To Trung Thanh, Head of the Research Management Department, Senior Lecturer at National Economics University Reporter from Nhan Dan Newspaper interviews Prof. To Trung Thanh, Head of the Research Management Department, Senior Lecturer at National Economics University on this issue. The Central Role of Institutional Reform Reporter: National Economics University has just released the Annual Vietnam Economic Review 2025 and the economic outlook for 2026. What are the noteworthy highlights, sir? Prof. To Trung Thanh: The year 2026 is identified as the starting point for the 2026-2030 development phase with a goal of breakthrough growth, with the National Assembly setting a GDP growth target of 10% or more. To achieve this goal, the Government is directing growth based on two main drivers: the industrial-construction sector and services, with growth rates of approximately 12% and 11%, respectively. In this context, the processing and manufacturing industry continues to play a pivotal role in the industrialization process, while the service sector is expected to grow strongly thanks to the recovery of consumption and the development of high value-added industries such as finance, logistics, and tourism. The agricultural sector maintains stable growth, serving as a pillar to ensure economic and social security. In addition to scale objectives, the 2026 development strategy particularly emphasizes improving growth quality. Indicators on the digital economy (contributing approximately 14.5% of GDP) and labor productivity (increasing by about 8.5%) are identified as key factors to ensure the sustainability of growth in the medium and long term. This indicates a shift in the growth model from being capital and labor-based to technology, innovation, and digital transformation-based. A highlight of the 2026 outlook is the central role of institutional reform. The strategic resolutions issued in 2025 lay the foundation for a comprehensive reform program, perfecting the economic institutions and shaping a new growth model for Vietnam in the new phase. Prominent among these are Resolution 57-NQ\/TW, Resolution 59-NQ\/TW, Resolution 66-NQ\/TW, Resolution 68-NQ\/TW, and Resolution 79-NQ\/TW. If implemented synchronously and effectively, these reforms could create breakthroughs in productivity, improve the business investment environment, and expand the long-term growth potential. Reporter: The economic outlook for Vietnam in 2026 is also significantly influenced by the international economic context, particularly the situation in the Middle East, isn’t it? Prof. To Trung Thanh: In the short term, achieving Vietnam’s high growth targets faces many policy constraints. Specifically, the monetary policy space is narrowed due to inflationary pressures, exchange rate fluctuations, and inherent risks in the financial-banking system. Therefore, monetary policy needs to prioritize macroeconomic stability and system safety while selectively supporting priority sectors. In this context, fiscal policy is expected to play a leading role in promoting growth in 2026. The main direction is targeted expansion, focusing on increasing development investment, particularly in strategic infrastructure such as transportation, energy, digital transformation, and green infrastructure. At the same time, tax policies are adjusted to support businesses and the private sector, while still ensuring fiscal discipline and public debt safety. Thus, fiscal policy gradually shifts from a supportive role to actively leading growth. The economic outlook for Vietnam in 2026 is also significantly influenced by the international economic context. Global trade decline following the “front-loading” export effect in 2025 may slow down Vietnam’s export growth, while increasing trade defense measures pose risks to export goods. FDI inflows are expected to continue shifting into Southeast Asia, with Vietnam being a key destination due to political stability and competitive costs. Another significant risk factor is commodity price volatility, especially energy prices. Rising oil prices can exert significant pressure on inflation, exchange rates, and the macroeconomic balance, while limiting policy maneuverability. This necessitates close coordination between fiscal and monetary policies to both control inflation and support growth. Enhancing Growth Quality Reporter: Despite achieving impressive growth rates in recent periods, the quality of Vietnam’s economic growth still reveals structural limitations. How should this issue be addressed? Prof. To Trung Thanh: Given the macroeconomic orientations setting a breakthrough GDP growth target of 10% per year or more for the 2026-2030 period, improving the quality of the economy must be a top priority. The main driver must come from enhancing total factor productivity (TFP), promoting growth through technological advancement and efficient resource utilization instead of relying solely on capital intensity. Accordingly, the contribution rate of TFP to growth needs to be increased to over 55%, accompanied by improving the capital utilization coefficient (ICOR) through accelerating public investment disbursement. The economy needs to strongly shift towards the “3I” model, including: Investment, Innovation, and Invention, to achieve autonomy in core technologies and expand the scale of the digital economy. Regarding the technology pillar, selective industrial policies and technological leapfrogging into fields with short cycles should be implemented to leverage latecomer advantages. Instead of competing in basic research, Vietnam should focus on practical AI applications in industries with existing knowledge and data, while building sovereign industrial data spaces for safe data exchange among enterprises. Reporter: The digital economy plays a crucial role in the goal of enhancing growth quality. What solutions are needed to promote the development of the digital economy in the new era, sir? Prof. To Trung Thanh: The orientation for the development of Vietnam’s digital economy by 2030 should not be viewed merely as the digitization of existing activities, but as a structural transformation where digital technology becomes a core production factor, determining productivity, growth quality, and national competitiveness. To realize the goal of the digital economy accounting for approximately 30% of GDP by 2030, the development model must be based on three main pillars. These are: the core digital economy (ICT) must shift from outsourcing to mastering technology; the sectoral digital economy needs to be deeply integrated into the value chain, with financial-banking, retail, logistics, and agriculture sectors transitioning from surface technology application […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":62980,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[169,168],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-63327","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-news","category-neu-newsletter"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63327","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=63327"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63327\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":63328,"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63327\/revisions\/63328"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/62980"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=63327"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=63327"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neu.edu.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=63327"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}