On the morning of April 10, National Economics University (NEU), in collaboration with the Central Commission for Policy and Strategy and the National Assembly’s Economic and Financial Committee, organized the national scientific conference “Vietnam’s Economy in 2024 and Outlook for 2025: Advancing Economic Institutional Reform in a New Context.” The conference also marked the release of NEU’s Annual Vietnam Economic Review 2024.

An overview of the conference

Attending the conference from outside the University were Dr. Nguyen Minh Son, Vice Chairman of the National Assembly’s Economic and Financial Committee; Dr. Nguyen Manh Hung, Standing Member of the National Assembly’s Economic and Financial Committee; Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Hong Son, Deputy Head of the Central Commission for Policy and Strategy; Dr. Pham Thi Hong Yen, Standing Member of the National Assembly’s Economic and Financial Committee; Dr. Tran Kim Anh, Deputy Director of the Department of General Economic Affairs, Central Commission for Policy and Strategy; Dr. Nguyen Quang Huy, Deputy Director of the Department of General Economic Affairs, Central Commission for Policy and Strategy; Nguyen Thi Dieu Trinh, Deputy Director General of the Department of Debt Management and External Economic Relations, Ministry of Finance; Nguyen Dac Nhan, Deputy Director General of the Department of Land Administration, Ministry of Agriculture and Environment; and Hoang Quang Phong, Vice President of the Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

Experts participating in the roundtable discussion included Assoc. Prof. Dr. Bui Van Huyen, Director of the Institute of Economics, Society and Environment, Ho Chi Minh National Academy of Politics; Dr. Vu Thanh Tu Anh, Fulbright University Vietnam; Assoc. Prof. Dr. Bui Tat Thang, former Director of the Institute for Development Strategies; Pham Chi Lan, Economist; and Dr. Dang Duc Anh, Deputy Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management.

Economists attending included Prof. Dr. Sc. Nguyen Quang Thai, President of the Vietnam Economic Science Association; Le Dang Doanh, former Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management; Le Xuan Ba, former Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management; Assoc. Prof. Dr. Tran Dinh Thien, former Director of the Vietnam Institute of Economics; Ngo Tri Long, former Director of the Institute for Market and Price Research; Dr. Pham Ngoc Thang, former official with department director rank at the Central Economic Commission; Prof. Dr. Dang Hung Vo, former Deputy Minister of Natural Resources and Environment; and Nguyen Bich Lam, former Director General of the General Statistics Office.

International delegates and representatives of foreign organizations included Lat-Ta-Na SihaLat, Deputy Ambassador and Minister Counselor, Embassy of Laos in Vietnam; MANG KINAL, Second Secretary, Embassy of Cambodia in Vietnam; Ance Maylany Napitupulu, Economic Counselor, Embassy of Indonesia in Vietnam; Oscar Edström, Head of Trade and Promotion, Embassy of Sweden; Jonathan London, UNDP Economist; Tran Hong Hanh, Director of Uni-Italia, Embassy of Italy in Vietnam; Le Thi My Hanh, Head of External Relations, Education Division, ACCA Vietnam; Vu Huong, Head of the Corporate Sector, ICAEW in Vietnam; and Haeja Park, Korea International Cooperation Agency.

Representing universities and research institutes were Dr. Truong Minh Huy Vu, Director of the Ho Chi Minh City Institute for Development Studies under the Ho Chi Minh City People’s Committee; Dr. Do Khac Thanh, Rector of Hung Vuong University; Dr. Phi Vinh Tuong, Director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics; Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Manh Thieu, Deputy Director of the Academy of Finance; and Dr. Nguyen Thanh Phuong, Deputy Director of the Banking Academy. Also attending were scholars from international organizations, central agencies, universities, and research institutes in Vietnam and abroad; research institutes and universities specializing in economics and business administration; economists; and business representatives, among others.

Representing NEU were Prof. Dr. Pham Hong Chuong, President; Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thanh Hieu, Vice President; and Prof. Dr. To Trung Thanh, Head of the Department of Research Management, together with representatives of the leadership of schools, departments, faculties, institutes, and centers; leaders of units and divisions; and numerous faculty, staff, and students from across the University.

Prof. Dr. Pham Hong Chuong, President of NEU, delivers remarks

In his opening remarks at the national scientific conference “Vietnam’s Economy in 2024 and Outlook for 2025,” Prof. Dr. Pham Hong Chuong, President of NEU, noted that the global economy faced numerous challenges in 2024, including tight monetary policy and persistent public debt in many developing countries.

Geopolitical instability continued in several regions, including the Middle East and Ukraine, alongside changes in government administrations in many countries around the world, including the United States. However, easing inflation in most major countries enabled many central banks worldwide to gradually shift toward monetary easing to support growth.

According to Prof. Dr. Pham Hong Chuong, 2024 could be considered a dynamic year marked by significant transformations. The real economy showed many signs of recovery, with full-year GDP growth reaching 7.09%, exceeding the Government’s target of 6–6.5% and substantially outpacing other countries in the region.

Prof. Pham Hong Chuong noted that, in the external sector, Vietnam continued to integrate more deeply into the global economy, with total merchandise exports and imports estimated at as much as USD 786.29 billion, equivalent to approximately 165% of GDP. The foreign direct investment (FDI) sector continued to dominate the domestic sector, accounting for 71.7% of total exports and 63.2% of total imports, while its value-added contribution to the economy remained below what its scale would suggest. Many domestic enterprises continued to face difficulties and were unable to establish linkages with the FDI sector that would enable them to participate more extensively in global production networks.

“Achieving growth of 8% in 2025 and higher rates in subsequent years is a challenging goal. To maintain sustainable growth over the long term, alongside harnessing traditional growth drivers, it is critically important to build an appropriate system of economic and political institutions.

An inclusive institutional system provides a crucial foundation for a fully functioning market economy and encourages the vast majority of people to participate in economic activities. At the same time, the institutional system must ensure the equitable distribution of economic gains, helping these inclusive institutions endure and expand,” said Prof. Dr. Pham Hong Chuong.

Prof. Dr. To Trung Thanh, Head of the Department of Research Management at NEU and co-editor of the publication, speaks at the conference

Offering recommendations on institutional policies, Prof. Dr. To Trung Thanh, Head of the Department of Research Management at NEU and co-editor of the Annual Vietnam Economic Review 2024, emphasized that Vietnam needs to maintain high economic growth alongside macroeconomic stability. It therefore needs to exercise caution in using monetary policy and strengthen policies promoting financial soundness. On that basis, it should pursue expansionary fiscal policy focused on improving the efficiency of public investment disbursement, selectively reducing taxes, and strengthening social welfare policies. Vietnam also needs to focus on domestic strengths and create an environment in which the private sector can develop into the economy’s most important driver; restructure production chains to increase added value, attract high-quality FDI, and deepen domestic participation in global chains; and diversify export markets.

According to Prof. Dr. To Trung Thanh, the state also needs to continue improving policies and laws to minimize administrative intervention, strengthen enforcement effectiveness, and ensure equality and transparency. It should reform its approach to lawmaking to ensure effective state management while fostering creativity, abandoning the mindset of “ban what cannot be controlled.”

Institutional policies in the period ahead need to focus on removing structural barriers within the administrative apparatus, minimizing overlapping functions, and improving governance and macroeconomic management capacity. The state needs to renew its management mindset, shifting from “doing things on behalf of” the private sector to guiding, supporting, and facilitating its development. In addition, it needs to focus on infrastructure, institutions, social welfare, and science and technology to drive sustainable development.

Numerous speakers, experts, and scholars attend the conference

In response to these issues, the conference focused on clarifying the international context and global impacts on Vietnam’s economy in 2024, and assessing Vietnam’s economic developments in 2024 across the economy’s main sectors.

Delegates also focused their discussions on measuring economic institutions, assessing the development of Vietnam’s market economy and the role of institutions through the impact of economic institutions on growth, and thereby identifying the causes of shortcomings in the legal system. They proposed policy recommendations for economic management in 2025 as well as important economic institutional reforms in the country’s new era.

Dr. Vu Thanh Tu Anh, Fulbright University Vietnam, presents the paper: From “Why Nations Fail” to “The Narrow Corridor”

Prof. Dr. Ngo Thang Loi, NEU, presents the paper: Institutions for private sector development

Speakers participate in the roundtable discussion

Offering another perspective, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham The Anh, Dean of the Faculty of Economics, NEU, noted that the economic growth target of 8% or higher was set at the beginning of the year and did not take into account current developments in international markets, particularly U.S. tariff policies toward all trading partners, including Vietnam.

Vietnam’s economy depends heavily on exports and the export-oriented foreign direct investment (FDI) sector. Current tariff policies therefore make Vietnamese goods more expensive when exported to the U.S. market. This poses a major barrier to Vietnam’s economic growth this year.

In addition, U.S. tariff policies create uncertainty and disrupt long-established rules in international markets. This uncertainty could cause FDI inflows to stagnate or decline. The economic growth target may therefore need to be adjusted. “This target can be regarded as something to strive for rather than something to achieve at any cost,” Assoc. Prof. Pham The Anh explained.

From a macroeconomic perspective, achieving growth of 8% or even higher, particularly in such an unfavorable international environment, requires a focus on strengthening domestic growth drivers. In the short term, exports are being severely affected by U.S. tariff policies. Consumption is also unlikely to provide a major boost to growth this year, as people’s incomes have not risen rapidly over the past few years, substantially limiting their purchasing power, the expert explained.

According to Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham The Anh, both the overheating real estate market and unreasonable personal income taxes reduce people’s capacity to consume. “We can partially offset the losses through international markets. If Vietnam adapts quickly, it can further ease visa requirements and develop international tourism to partially offset the negative effects stemming from exports,” Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham The Anh said.

From an international perspective, Jonathan D. London, UNDP Economist, argued that Vietnam’s development strategy needs to balance short- and long-term solutions and transform its growth model. In the immediate term, Vietnam should prioritize industrial and trade policies while strengthening economic diplomacy to maintain its share in major markets such as the United States and the EU. In the long term, the country needs to build a growth model based on productivity, innovation, and high-quality public investment, particularly in infrastructure, energy, and education.

“An inclusive, transparent institutional system that provides incentives will create an environment for the majority of people and businesses to participate in a modern market economy. This will provide the foundation for Vietnam not only to respond to the current crisis but also to pursue sustainable growth.

In fact, rather than waiting for the United States to announce its new tariff policies, the Government has proactively and actively addressed concerns about international trade, including trade with the United States. At the same time, the Government has also paid close attention to restructuring the economy, promoting innovation, and enhancing Vietnam’s position in global value chains,” the UNDP expert emphasized.

Dr. Nguyen Minh Son, Vice Chairman of the National Assembly’s Economic and Financial Committee, delivers closing remarks at the conference

According to Dr. Nguyen Minh Son, Vice Chairman of the National Assembly’s Economic and Financial Committee, the solutions and policy recommendations presented at the conference provide important reference material for the relevant authorities in formulating policies for the coming period.

As part of the conference, NEU launched the publication Vietnam Annual Economic Review 2024, “Promoting Economic Institutional Reform in the New Context.”

Prof. Dr. Pham Hong Chuong, President of NEU, and Prof. Dr. To Trung Thanh, Head of the Department of Research Management, co-editors of the publication, introduce and discuss it

Based on research into two groups of institutions—the economic legal system and the legal system governing the state apparatus—the publication addresses the global and Vietnamese economic outlook for 2025. It also offers general macroeconomic policy recommendations and policies to promote institutional reform in the new context.

Accordingly, institutional reform should aim to build a transparent and equitable investment and business environment and minimize administrative intervention in policymaking, laying the foundation for the private sector to develop into the most important driver of growth.

Journalists and reporters engage in discussions and a question-and-answer session at the publication launch

Dr. Vu Trong Nghia, Head of the Department of Communications, serves as master of ceremonies at the publication launch

MSc. Bui Duc Dung, Head of the Department of General Affairs, serves as master of ceremonies at the conference

Delegates pose for a group photo at the conference

Article and photos: Department of Communications

Media coverage of the conference:

VTV1 Television

VTV1 news at 11:00 p.m. – April 10, 2025

Hanoi Television

Nhan Dan: Promoting economic institutional reform in the new context

Lao Dong: Creating an environment for the private sector to become the economy’s most important driver

Vneconomy: Vietnam needs to promote economic institutional reform in the new context

Vnexpress: ‘The U.S. 90-day tariff pause is a good opportunity for Vietnam to negotiate’

Vietnamnet: Bold reforms to achieve the 8% growth target

Dai Bieu Nhan Dan: Institutional reform creates growth momentum

Tien Phong: ‘We need to develop the domestic economy and regard it as our most fundamental internal resource’

Vietnam Financial Times: Vietnam faces a major opportunity for coordinated economic institutional reform

A decisive moment for Vietnam to enter a new growth trajectory

Review of Finance: The 90-day “countdown” for tariff negotiations with the United States: Time to change Vietnam’s economic structure

Exchange rates on a “tightrope” under reciprocal tariff pressure

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Government News: Facing tariff challenges: An opportunity to reshape the economy

Saigon Times: What should be done after the U.S. 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs?

CafeF: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham The Anh: “Whatever the outcome of negotiations, the rules of global trade have changed; Vietnam needs to diversify its export markets”

VTV Times: Promoting institutional reform to drive growth

VNA Media (Vietnam News Agency): Institutional reform begins with transparency

Policy & Life (Vietnam News Agency): Promoting economic institutional reform in the new context

Tin Tuc Newspaper: Promoting economic institutional reform in the new context

Hanoi Moi: New thinking needed to establish an economic structure for sustainable development

Banking Times: Institutions are the “soft core” of growth

Nguoi Lao Dong: The U.S. 90-day tariff pause is a good opportunity for Vietnam to negotiate

VTC News: National Economics University releases annual economic report

Finance & Enterprise: Building an inclusive institutional system to create new growth drivers

Conference on Vietnam’s economy in 2024 and outlook for 2025

Vnbusiness: The U.S. 90-day tariff pause: What opportunities are there for Vietnamese businesses?

Nguoi Dua Tin: A path toward sustainable private sector growth

Establishing a rightful position for the private sector in an economy with fair competition

Business Forum: Institutional reform for sustainable growth

Investor: Economic institutional reform: The private sector needs fairness

Vietnam Finace: The tariff war: The traditional growth model and challenges in the new context

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham The Anh: ‘Long-term investment resources must come from the private sector’

Industry and Trade: Traditional growth drivers show signs of declining effectiveness

Vietnam Annual Economic Review 2021: Inflation is the greatest concern!

Enterprise & Business: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham The Anh: Strive for high growth amid severe tariffs while remaining cautious about asset bubble risks

Monetary Security: Vietnam’s labor productivity is 59.6% of Thailand’s, 52.8% of Malaysia’s, and less than 20% of Singapore’s

One World Magazine: Expert: Institutional reform is the path to prosperity

Mekong Asean Magazine: Economic institutions are the ‘soft core’ of growth

Life & Law: Private sector development: Strengthening internal capacity and reducing dependence on external sources

The Observer: GDP grows strongly, but institutions have yet to keep pace: Vietnam must enter a ‘narrow corridor’ if it wants to achieve a breakthrough

Market Pulse: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham The Anh: “Whatever the outcome of negotiations, the global trade game has changed; Vietnam needs to diversify its export markets”

Reatimes: Promoting institutional reform for economic growth in the new context

The Manager Magazine: As growth drivers lose steam, is the 8% growth target out of reach?

This is an automated translation. If you notice any errors, please contact the Department of Communications, National Economics University at phongtruyenthong@neu.edu.vn.