VOV1 – Recommendations for population policy in the new phase call for linking it to socioeconomic instruments such as taxation, credit, housing incentives, benefits, and working conditions. The focus should shift from the size to the quality of human resources to meet the demands of a modern economy.

Prof. Dr. Giang Thanh Long, Senior Lecturer at National Economics University (NEU)

The Southern Institute of Social Sciences (Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences) recently released the results of a nationwide survey on population and human resources for 2024-2025. The findings show that Vietnam’s population policies have primarily focused on controlling population growth and adjusting the population structure, but this approach is no longer appropriate for the current period. Recommendations for population policy in the new phase therefore call for linking it to socioeconomic instruments such as taxation, credit, housing incentives, benefits, and working conditions. The focus should shift from the size to the quality of human resources to meet the demands of a modern economy. A Voice of Vietnam reporter interviewed Prof. Dr. Giang Thanh Long, Senior Lecturer at the College of Economics and Public Management, NEU.

1. The recently released survey results show that fertility is trending downward and that more young people are remaining single, not marrying, and not having children, particularly in urban areas. How have these factors been affecting our country’s socioeconomic development?

Prof. Dr. Giang Thanh Long: The first impact concerns population and labor. If this situation continues, population aging will accelerate. If it becomes increasingly widespread, particularly as fertility continues to decline, it will affect the size of the working-age population now and in the future. As in other countries in the region, if this situation persists and becomes widespread, it will lead to labor shortages in the not-too-distant future. In particular, places that need workers to develop industry and services will face a situation similar to that currently seen in South Korea and Japan.

The second impact is on economic growth. This is clear: when the labor force shrinks rapidly, even digitization or technological improvements will not enable labor productivity to increase as quickly as we would like. When the population ages rapidly, consumption needs also change. For example, single people typically spend differently from those with families. For that reason, spending patterns in the economy will change fundamentally. In addition, the momentum we hope to sustain from the current demographic dividend is no longer as strong as before and is rapidly disappearing.

2. The recommendation is that population policy should move from rigid controls to a “flexible regulatory valve” based on economic and social instruments such as taxation, finance, housing incentives, benefits, and social services, ensuring people’s right to self-determination while maintaining replacement-level fertility. What are your thoughts on this solution?

Prof. Dr. Giang Thanh Long: First, with a flexible regulatory valve, we can use tax incentives, financial support for households with young children, housing assistance, childcare services, and longer maternity leave with higher benefits to influence reproductive behavior. This also helps us tailor policies by region. Urban areas have low fertility, while mountainous and poor areas have high fertility. Flexible adjustment of these policies will help us support higher fertility in urban areas.

I believe this will have a dual economic effect. First, measures to encourage childbearing should be linked to the economy’s needs, not only in the short term but also in the long term. For example, when the State supports child-rearing costs through tax reductions, households can increase their spending. Second, investment in social welfare becomes a driver of growth, and this has already been demonstrated. Many international organizations say that investing in children and in care for older people to encourage childbearing is also a form of investment in social protection. The International Labour Organization, the World Bank, and the United Nations Population Fund have all demonstrated that investment in social protection in many countries promotes economic growth and creates jobs, particularly in sectors providing services to the population. Finally, it stimulates growth through increased productivity. With family-friendly policies in place, young workers can immediately focus on their professional work and have opportunities to improve their skills and knowledge, thereby influencing productivity.

3. Viewing population policy as an instrument for economic development, what recommendations would you offer for the coming period, as Vietnam becomes more deeply integrated into global value chains, moving from simple production to complex manufacturing and from contract manufacturing to research and development?

When we view population as an instrument for economic development, the first requirement is that population policies must be closely linked to human resource development policies. We must make a fundamental shift from population size to population quality. This requires coordinated policies that not only develop resources but also create jobs, alongside education, healthcare, and social protection policies. All of these are closely interconnected.

Second, it is important to affirm that these policies must follow people throughout their lives. This preparation is not simply about creating jobs for people when they are young. Creating good jobs for young people also allows us to continue drawing on their potential when they are older, while substantially reducing associated costs. For example, as the United States and some OECD countries have done, if we spend one unit of money on preventive healthcare to help people avoid chronic diseases, we can save three dollars in treatment costs. This is an investment that delivers very good returns.

Finally, in the current context of the technological revolution and digital transformation, improving the capabilities of the entire population is certainly very important, not only for the present but also for the future.

For this reason, we need adequate policies and strategies, including lifelong learning and the provision of academic programs, to help people adapt more effectively to changes in the digital economy and thereby improve the quality of human resources. I believe population policy and human resource development policy are essentially like two gears in an engine. When they mesh, the entire system operates well. Otherwise, it will be very difficult for us to move from population policy to human resource policy and thereby promote economic development.

Thank you, Prof. Dr. Giang Thanh Long!

Source: VOV1

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