To mitigate the effects of U.S. reciprocal tariffs, Vietnam needs to pursue goals such as minimizing their negative impacts on exporting businesses; stabilizing the domestic market and supply chains; and maintaining the confidence of investors and international partners…

These were among the strategic solutions proposed by experts at the policy dialogue seminar themed “U.S. Reciprocal Tariff Policy: Impacts and Strategic Adjustments for Vietnam,” organized by National Economics University (NEU) this morning (May 8, 2025), to help Vietnamese businesses and the economy adapt effectively to changes in U.S. reciprocal tariff policy in the new context.

An overview of the seminar

Attending the seminar on behalf of ministries, departments, and central agencies were: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Hong Son, Deputy Head of the Central Commission for Policy and Strategy; Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham Van Linh, Full-time Vice Chair of the Central Theoretical Council; Bui Xuan Du, Director of the Department of Secretarial and Editorial Affairs, Government Office; Vu Ba Phu, Director General of the Vietnam Trade Promotion Agency, Ministry of Industry and Trade; Dr. Tran Kim Anh, Deputy Director of the Department of General Economic Affairs, Central Commission for Policy and Strategy; Tran Thanh Hai, Deputy Director General of the Agency of Foreign Trade, Ministry of Industry and Trade; Vu Duc Minh, Deputy Director of the Department of Legal Affairs, Ministry of Industry and Trade; and Le Anh Dung, Deputy Director of the Payment Department, State Bank of Vietnam.

Experts attending included: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Tran Dinh Thien, former Director of the Vietnam Institute of Economics and Member of the Prime Minister’s Policy Advisory Council; Dr. Nguyen Van Hoi, Director of the Vietnam Institute of Strategy and Policy for Industry and Trade; Assoc. Prof. Dr. Bui Van Huyen, Director of the Institute of Economics, Society and Environment, Ho Chi Minh National Academy of Politics; Dr. Le Phuong Hoa, Deputy Director of the Institute for Asia-Pacific Studies; Assoc. Prof. Dr. Le Xuan Ba, former Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management; Dr. Nguyen Dinh Cung, former Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management; Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ngo Tri Long, former Director of the Institute for Market and Price Research; Dr. Vo Tri Thanh, former Deputy Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management; Pham Chi Lan, Economist; and Dang Duc Anh, Deputy Director of the Institute of Strategy and Policy… Other attendees included nearly 200 delegates, including researchers; representatives of central agencies, universities and research institutes in Vietnam and abroad, including those specializing in economics and business administration; economic experts; and business representatives…

The main speakers were: Dr. Tran Toan Thang, Head of the Department of International Affairs and Integration Policy, Institute of Economic and Financial Strategy and Policy; Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ta Van Loi, President of the College of Business, NEU; and Assoc. Prof. Dr. Phan Huu Nghi, Vice Dean of the School of Banking and Finance.

Representing NEU were: Prof. Dr. Pham Hong Chuong, President; Assoc. Prof. Dr. Bui Duc Tho, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chair of the University Council; Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thanh Hieu, Vice President; and Prof. Dr. To Trung Thanh, Head of the Department of Research Management; along with representatives of the leadership of colleges, departments, faculties, schools, institutes, and centers; leaders of units and divisions; and a large number of faculty, staff, and students from across the University.

Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thanh Hieu, Vice President of NEU, speaks at the seminar

In his opening remarks at the seminar, Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thanh Hieu, Vice President of NEU, observed that the new U.S. tariff policy has numerous impacts not only on major economies such as China, the United Kingdom, and the European Union (EU)… but also on many countries participating in global supply chains, including Vietnam.

In particular, with exports to the United States accounting for as much as 30% of the country’s total export value, and its trade surplus with this market equivalent to more than 20% of GDP, the U.S. imposition of tariffs of up to 46% on goods exported from Vietnam will undoubtedly have far-reaching impacts on import and export activities, place considerable pressure on the trade balance, and directly affect the economy’s key growth drivers.

“Whatever the outcome, this is a time for Vietnam to prepare measures to respond to the changes and impacts arising from the new U.S. tariff policy. At the same time, it is also an opportunity to restructure the economy toward self-reliance and sustainable development and strengthen its resilience to global instability,” the Vice President of NEU observed.

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Phan Huu Nghi, Vice Dean of the School of Banking and Finance, presents “U.S. reciprocal tariffs: Assessing impacts on the overall economy and adaptation measures”

To mitigate the effects of U.S. reciprocal tariffs, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Phan Huu Nghi, Vice Dean of the School of Banking and Finance, NEU, said Vietnam’s approach should pursue goals such as minimizing the negative impacts of reciprocal tariffs on exporting businesses; stabilizing the domestic market and supply chains; maintaining the confidence of investors and international partners; and turning the crisis into a driver of reform and improved competitiveness.

According to Assoc. Prof. Dr. Phan Huu Nghi, preventive measures, preparations for negotiations, and adaptation measures need to be implemented before risks materialize to protect businesses and maintain foreign direct investment (FDI) supply chains. These steps should also help avoid new complications after reciprocal tariff negotiations with the United States, such as having to negotiate revisions to lists of goods with other leading partners, including China, the EU, and Japan. In the long term, Vietnam needs to develop policies to diversify export markets, strengthen regional and global cooperation, and avoid dependence on any single market. In addition, it needs to review the impacts of multinational groups and companies operating in Vietnam on tax revenue, technology transfer, and the environment to attract FDI selectively. Vietnam also needs to build sustainable local economies by investing in infrastructure, training local workers, restoring natural resources, and fostering local community cohesion to create an economy resilient to external shocks.

Dr. Tran Toan Thang, Head of the Department of International Affairs and Integration Policy, Institute of Economic and Financial Strategy and Policy, presents “Impacts of U.S. reciprocal tariffs on Vietnam’s manufacturing industries and business sector”

Alongside these impacts, Dr. Tran Toan Thang, Head of the Department of International Affairs and Integration Policy, Institute of Economic and Financial Strategy and Policy, also provided an in-depth, detailed analysis of specific impacts on industries including textiles and garments, leather and footwear, electronics, wooden products, and seafood, as well as impacts on FDI attraction.

Accordingly, the textile and garment and leather and footwear industries are highly dependent on the U.S. market, so the negative impacts are substantial, with exports declining sharply and workers affected.

For the electronics industry (including computers, electronic products, components, and mobile phones), although certain electronic items (smartphones, computers, and chips) have been exempted from reciprocal tariffs under an amending executive order, the threat of new tariffs on semiconductors in the future remains, creating uncertainty for the industry.

Meanwhile, the wooden products industry is particularly dependent on the U.S. market. In the long term, Vietnam risks losing market share to competitors such as Mexico and Indonesia if high tariffs remain in place.

For the seafood industry, the United States is the second-largest market for Vietnamese seafood. The industry therefore faces the risk that U.S. importers will switch to suppliers from other countries, such as Thailand.

In particular, the imposition of reciprocal tariffs will have a considerable impact on Vietnam’s ability to attract FDI by reducing its appeal, creating a risk that investment will be redirected to countries such as Mexico, India, or Indonesia.

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ta Van Loi, President of the College of Business, NEU, presents “Adjusting Vietnam’s trade policy in the context of U.S. reciprocal tariffs on Vietnam”

Discussing adjustments to Vietnam’s trade policy in the context of U.S. reciprocal tariffs, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ta Van Loi, President of the College of Business, NEU, said Vietnam needs to review the categories of goods in which it records a trade surplus with the United States and negotiate to ease tariff pressure on these categories. For categories of goods in which FDI enterprises record a trade surplus, tax policies and tax incentives need to be reviewed in light of the impacts of the new tariffs. Foreign enterprises disguising their identity to export goods to the United States and generate a trade surplus must be firmly excluded; for the remaining enterprises, committed tax incentives will be maintained and the tariff burden shared where possible…

For categories of goods in which Vietnam records a trade surplus, such as textiles and garments, footwear, wooden products, and seafood…, a clear analysis is needed of the value Vietnam gains from the value chain in relation to the new tariff amounts. Vietnam needs to adjust its comprehensive economic development strategy with a long-term vision, clearly identifying key industries on which to focus investment.

In the future, many simple occupations and services will be eliminated by digital transformation, robotics, automation, artificial intelligence (AI), and other technologies. Vietnam should therefore propose opening selected sectors, including semiconductor technology, AI, software, the digital economy, nuclear technology, and new materials, to U.S. businesses. In addition, Vietnam needs to invest more in improving the quality of its human resources and gaining faster access to global technologies, among other measures. It should focus on attracting FDI through high-quality human resources, transparency, and fairness to improve its position in global supply chains.

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ta Van Loi also discussed other adaptive measures, such as encouraging private-sector development and shifting the approach to trade and investment relations from reactive to proactive, with a balance in both directions to achieve greater benefits.

Prof. Dr. Pham Hong Chuong, President of NEU, and Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Hong Son, Deputy Head of the Central Commission for Policy and Strategy, moderate the open discussion at the seminar

Prof. Dr. To Trung Thanh, Head of the Department of Research Management, NEU, gives an interview on the sidelines of the seminar

In a press interview on the sidelines of the seminar, Prof. Dr. To Trung Thanh, Head of the Department of Research Management, NEU, proposed several response measures. He emphasized that the time has come to restructure the economy rather than rely on resources from the rest of the world. Particularly in the current volatile global environment and a new era with a new world order, where free trade no longer exists, Vietnam needs to rely on its domestic resources—the private sector.

Among the response measures, Prof. To Trung Thanh argued, first, that all barriers to private-sector development must be removed, particularly bottlenecks in economic institutions. Second, measures are needed to leverage free trade agreement (FTA) markets to diversify export markets. Third, production chains must be repositioned and restructured, and high-quality FDI attracted. Support is needed to help the private sector enter global production chains to secure greater added value. In other words, Vietnam needs to accelerate restructuring and increase the economy’s added value. Fourth, science and technology, innovation, and the digital economy must be promoted to create new drivers of sustainable growth. Fifth, current policies, particularly monetary policy, require great caution to ensure macroeconomic stability and strengthen economic resilience, while prioritizing the development of a sound financial system.

Economic experts and delegates exchange views and discuss issues at the seminar

Also at the seminar, researchers, experts, and policymakers exchanged views, analyzed the nature and impacts of changes in U.S. reciprocal tariff policy, and proposed appropriate strategic solutions to help businesses and Vietnam’s economy adapt effectively to these changes in the new context.

Some images from the seminar:

Article and photos: Department of Communications

Media coverage of the seminar:

Hanoi Television: U.S. tariffs put pressure on Vietnam’s exchange rate

Lao Dong: To retain the U.S. market, businesses need to proactively prove the origin of goods

Nhan Dan: Restructuring the economy to strengthen resilience to shocks

Vneconomy: Proactively seeking strategic solutions to U.S. tariff policy

CafeF: Expert: This is an opportunity for Vietnam to restructure its economy

Vietnam Financial Times: Experts suggest strategies for Vietnam to adapt to U.S. reciprocal tariff policy

Finance Magazine: “Smart” responses to U.S. reciprocal tariff pressure

Vietnam News Agency: Seminar on U.S. reciprocal tariffs: Impacts and strategic adjustments for Vietnam

Tien Phong: University discusses adjustments to Vietnam’s economic strategy

Saigon Times: It is time for private enterprises to restructure to ‘rise up’

Tin Tuc Newspaper: U.S. reciprocal tariffs: Impacts and strategic adjustments for Vietnam

Minimizing the impacts of U.S. reciprocal tariff rates

Policy & Life (Vietnam News Agency): Seminar on U.S. reciprocal tariffs: Impacts and strategic adjustments for Vietnam

Banking Times: Strengthening internal capacity to respond to tariff impacts

Journalists & Public Opinion: Reciprocal tariffs are a major shock requiring economic restructuring and support for private enterprises

Sai Gon Giai Phong Newspaper: Restructuring the economy to strengthen resilience to external “shocks”

Ho Chi Minh City Law Newspaper: Seminar on U.S. reciprocal tariffs: Impacts and strategic adjustments for Vietnam

Business Forum: Retaining the U.S. market: Transparent controls on the origin of goods

Economic and Urban Affairs: Turning crisis into a driver of reform in response to U.S. reciprocal tariff policy

Capital Labor: Enhancing the role of the private sector in light of news of U.S. reciprocal tariffs

Encouraging entrepreneurial spirit and unlocking resources for development

Investment: Two million enterprises by 2030 are “a sure thing”

Finance–Business Magazine: U.S. tariff policy: An opportunity to reposition development strategy

Vnbusiness: Businesses ‘rush’ to fulfill orders amid U.S. reciprocal tariff pressure

Financial and Monetary Markets: U.S. reciprocal tariff policy and strategic adjustments for Vietnam

Merchant Magazine: Facing the U.S. “tariff storm”: Export businesses are “on pins and needles,” while domestic businesses also feel the strain

The Messenger: U.S. reciprocal tariffs: An opportunity for Vietnam to restructure toward a self-reliant economy

The Observer: U.S. tariffs threaten tens of billions of USD in exports and FDI flows: Is it time for Vietnam to ‘transform’ its supply chains?

The Investor: Proposal to review tax policies for FDI enterprises with trade surpluses with the United States

Bidding Newspaper: New U.S. tariff policy: Turning challenges into drivers of reform

Customs: Seeking responses to U.S. tariff policy

Management Magazine: Trade negotiations with the United States on reciprocal tariffs: What should Vietnam consider?

The U.S. reciprocal tariff game and the path for Vietnam

Securities Investment: New U.S. tariff policy: Turning challenges into drivers of reform

Intellectual Property Magazine: Experts propose multiple strategic solutions to U.S. tariff pressure

This is an automated translation. If you notice any errors, please contact the Department of Communications, National Economics University at phongtruyenthong@neu.edu.vn.