On June 3, 2025, National Economics University (NEU), in collaboration with the Central Commission for Policy and Strategy, organized a policy dialogue seminar on “Directions and Solutions for High and Sustainable Economic Growth Through 2045.”

An overview of the seminar

Attending the seminar on behalf of ministries, commissions, and central agencies were Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Hong Son, Deputy Head of the Central Commission for Policy and Strategy; Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham Van Linh, Full-time Vice Chair of the Central Theoretical Council; Senior Lieutenant General Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Van Thanh, Vice Chair of the Central Theoretical Council; Dr. Nguyen Manh Hung, Member of the National Assembly’s Economic and Financial Committee; Dr. Nguyen Quang Huy, Deputy Director of the Department of General Economic Affairs, Central Commission for Policy and Strategy; Dr. Tran Kim Anh, Deputy Director of the Department of General Economic Affairs, Central Commission for Policy and Strategy; and Dr. Chu Thanh Lan, Deputy Director of the Department of Forecasting, Statistics, and Monetary and Financial Stability, State Bank of Vietnam;

Economic experts attending included Dr. Vo Tri Thanh, former Deputy Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management; Dr. Dau Anh Tuan, Deputy Secretary General and Head of the Legal Department, VCCI; Dr. Dang Duc Anh, Deputy Director of the Institute for Policy and Strategy Studies; Dr. Le Dang Doanh, former Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management; Nguyen Bich Lam, former Director General of the General Statistics Office; and Dr. Le Xuan Sang, Deputy Director of the Vietnam and World Economy Institute. Also attending were nearly 200 delegates, including researchers; representatives of central agencies, domestic and overseas universities and research institutes, and research institutes and universities specializing in economics and business administration; economic experts; and business representatives…

The main speakers were Prof. Dr. Tran Thi Van Hoa, Senior Lecturer at the Faculty of Management Science, NEU; Dr. Dang Thi Thu Hoai, Institute for Policy and Strategy Studies; and Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham The Anh, Dean of the Faculty of Economics, NEU.

Representing NEU were Prof. Dr. Pham Hong Chuong, President; Assoc. Prof. Dr. Bui Duc Tho, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chair of the University Council; Assoc. Prof. Dr. Bui Huy Nhuong, Vice President; Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thanh Hieu, Vice President; and Prof. Dr. To Trung Thanh, Head of the Department of Research Management. Also attending were representatives of the leadership of colleges, departments, faculties, schools, institutes, and centers; heads of units and divisions; and a large number of faculty, staff, and students from across the University.

Prof. Dr. Pham Hong Chuong, President of NEU, delivers opening remarks

In his opening remarks, Prof. Dr. Pham Hong Chuong, President of NEU, emphasized that, during the post-pandemic recovery and development period, Vietnam faces an urgent need to enhance competitiveness, restructure its economy, and fully leverage opportunities arising from international economic integration to achieve sustainable development goals. The Party and the State have set a growth target of 8% or higher in 2025 and “double-digit” growth for 2026-2030, aiming to join the upper-middle-income group of countries by 2030 and the high-income group by 2045. Pursuing double-digit economic growth is not only a strategic aspiration but also a measure of the country’s vision, determination, and capacity for macroeconomic management.

However, the path to achieving double-digit growth presents numerous challenges related to institutions, resources, growth quality, labor productivity, science and technology, and enterprises’ internal capabilities. At the same time, a volatile global environment—with factors such as geopolitical tensions, policy changes in major countries, digital transformation issues, supply chain shifts, and requirements for green and sustainable development—also requires Vietnam to adopt flexible, effective, and breakthrough development strategies.

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Hong Son, Deputy Head of the Central Commission for Policy and Strategy, delivers introductory remarks at the seminar

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham The Anh, NEU, presents “Macroeconomic Policy Foundations and Trends for High Economic Growth: Global Experience and Lessons for Vietnam”

Analyzing Vietnam’s growth model, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham The Anh, NEU, observed that Vietnam’s growth relies primarily on investment and exports; domestic enterprises largely engage only in processing and assembly; links between foreign direct investment (FDI) enterprises and domestic enterprises are fragmented; and exports depend on a few major markets…

Assessing the fiscal and monetary foundations for economic growth, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham The Anh noted that, in recent years, the revenue-to-GDP ratio has been high, at around 19%, while the expenditure-to-GDP ratio has declined due to bottlenecks in public investment disbursement. In particular, the share of revenue from taxes and fees has tended to decline, while revenue from sources other than taxes and fees has gradually accounted for a larger share. Specifically, taxes and fees accounted for 81.8% of total budget revenue in 2018, falling to 77.8% in 2022. In the breakdown of budget revenue by tax type, personal income tax revenue grew rapidly, from 6.65% of total revenue from taxes and fees in 2018 to 8.9% in 2022.

“The scope for raising direct taxes is limited when seeking to encourage domestic investment and consumption. Meanwhile, debt service obligations are high relative to budget revenue. This shows that fiscal space has indeed become limited,” Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham The Anh affirmed.

Similarly, the outlook for monetary policy space is no better: monetary policy lacks independence, pursues multiple objectives, and relies heavily on administrative measures; the economy depends on the credit system; inflationary risks persist; real estate prices are soaring; the domestic currency is depreciating; monetary policy is not countercyclical; the gap between interest rates and inflation is narrow; the gap between domestic and international interest rates is narrow; foreign exchange reserves are thin; credit quality is low, with credit not genuinely flowing into production and nonperforming loans tending to rise; the capacity to comply with Basel II standards remains limited; and raising long-term capital is difficult…

To achieve high and sustainable economic growth, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham The Anh proposed developing specific long-term plans and supportive policies on taxation, credit, and the business environment for key industries with competitive advantages. At the same time, he called for stronger efforts to train a high-quality workforce and invest in R&D. Investment should also be directed selectively toward infrastructure projects with strong spillover effects, avoiding scattered investment, a lack of focus on key objectives, and the influence of narrow interests or timing considerations.

Regarding the mobilization of resources for major public investment projects, the NEU expert emphasized the need to restructure expenditure and identify sustainable revenue sources through measures such as reducing and streamlining the administrative apparatus; introducing a real estate tax on second and subsequent homes; reducing corporate and personal income taxes to stimulate domestic investment and consumption, partially replacing exports; offering tax incentives based on local content ratios; divesting from state-owned enterprises; and promoting public-private partnerships.

Prof. Dr. Tran Thi Van Hoa, NEU, presents “Growth Scenarios for Vietnam to Join the High-Income Group of Countries by 2045”

According to Prof. Dr. Tran Thi Van Hoa, NEU, Vietnam needs to implement coordinated solutions to join the high-income group of countries. Institutional and administrative solutions include focusing on streamlining the administrative apparatus, reforming procedures, and making responsibilities transparent; and completing the policy framework for developing the digital economy and innovation, including pilot mechanisms. In economics and trade, policies are needed to attract high-tech FDI, ensure commitments to technology transfer and domestic linkages, develop integrated digital infrastructure, apply AI/IoT/Big Data, and identify stages within the value chain. These efforts should be accompanied by technological innovation, smart manufacturing, STEM education, stimulation of domestic demand, export diversification, and the leveraging of FTAs and free trade zones.

Dr. Dang Thi Thu Hoai, Institute for Policy and Strategy Studies, presents “Strategic Solutions to Improve the Quality of Vietnam’s Economic Growth for High and Sustainable Growth”

Also discussing solutions for sustainable economic development and high growth, Dr. Dang Thi Thu Hoai, Institute for Policy and Strategy Studies, emphasized that productivity gains are the most important driver of growth, achieved through structural transformation, improved efficiency, extensive growth, and innovation.

Dr. Dang Thi Thu Hoai therefore expressed agreement with and strong appreciation for the resolutions recently issued by the Party and the State on solutions for technology development, digital transformation, and private-sector promotion, as well as efforts to reform the administrative apparatus and government at all levels.

In addition, Dr. Dang Thi Thu Hoai argued that regulatory agencies need to continue legal reforms and create a business environment with fair competition; support for enterprises’ access to resources, capital, land, and business opportunities must be transparent and based on their capacity for innovation…

Delegates exchange views at the seminar

In addition, Vietnam needs to develop an ecosystem for innovation and digital transformation by increasing budget investment and mobilizing resources from society for research and development (R&D) in priority areas; establishing innovation centers and technology incubators; and introducing tax and credit policies that encourage R&D and innovation in enterprises…

On the other hand, experts argued that, while pursuing sustainable economic development and high growth, Vietnam should not trade macroeconomic stability for high growth. Instead, it needs to develop specific, long-term plans; invest selectively in priority areas; coordinate macroeconomic policies harmoniously, especially fiscal and monetary policies; control inflation; and create a transparent business environment…

Prof. Dr. To Trung Thanh, National Economics University (NEU), shares his views on the sidelines of the seminar

Speaking on the sidelines of the seminar, Prof. Dr. To Trung Thanh, Head of the Department of Research Management at NEU, emphasized that pursuing double-digit economic growth is not only a strategic aspiration but also a measure of the country’s vision, determination, and capacity for macroeconomic management. To achieve these goals, Vietnam needs to overcome a series of challenges: reforming institutions; removing development bottlenecks; improving labor productivity and the quality of growth; increasing investment in science, technology, and innovation; developing high-quality human resources; and, especially, enhancing the competitiveness of the private sector.

Some images from the seminar:

Article and photos: Department of Communications

Media coverage of the seminar:

Nhan Dan: Realizing the Aspiration for Double-Digit Growth

Vnexpress: Expert: Vietnam Should Consider Taxing Second Homes

Vietnam Financial Times: Three Development Scenarios for Vietnam Through 2045

Double-Digit Growth Scenarios: Choose “Rapid Acceleration” or a “Sustainable Wave”?

Finance Magazine: A Roadmap for Vietnam to Realize Its Aspiration of Becoming a High-Income Country

Vneconomy: Strategic Solutions to Help Vietnam Promote High and Sustainable Economic Growth

Vietnamnet: ‘We Need to Learn from Japan, South Korea, and Singapore’

Government Online Newspaper: Proposing Breakthrough Solutions for Vietnam to Achieve Its Growth Target

Tien Phong: A Scenario in Which Vietnam’s Per Capita Income Reaches USD 28,370 per Year

A Strategy to Turn Household Businesses into Enterprises

CafeF: What GDP Growth Rate Does Vietnam Need for Its Per Capita GDP to Exceed USD 28,500 and for the Country to Join the High-Income Group by 2045?

Banking Times: Strategic Directions and Breakthrough Solutions for High, Sustainable Economic Growth Through 2045

People’s Army Newspaper: Solutions for High and Sustainable Economic Growth

Vietnam News Agency: Proposing Breakthrough Solutions for Vietnam to Achieve Its Double-Digit Economic Growth Target

Education & Times: Directions and Solutions for High and Sustainable Economic Growth Through 2045

VTC News: NEU Proposes Solutions for Double-Digit Growth

Business Forum: Growth Scenarios to Bring Vietnam into the High-Income Group by 2025

Finance & Business Magazine: Solutions for High and Sustainable Economic Growth: Tax Incentives Based on Local Content Ratios

Investment Newspaper: Three Growth Scenarios for Vietnam to Join the Group of High-Growth Countries in 2045

Business Life: New Policy Thinking for Sustainable Economic Growth Through 2045

The Investor: Which Scenario for Vietnam’s Economic Growth Through 2045?

VOV: Vietnam’s Growth Scenarios Through 2045: Comprehensive Preparation – Focused Acceleration – Optimizing Growth Efficiency

Vnbusiness: Improving Institutions and Creating Momentum for the Private Sector to Make Vietnam a High-Income Country

Financial and Monetary Market Magazine: High and Sustainable Economic Growth Through 2045: A Challenging but Entirely Achievable Ambition

Brand & Public Opinion: Experts Propose Breakthrough Solutions for High and Sustainable Economic Growth Through 2045

Business & Marketing: Forecasting Three Scenarios for Vietnam’s Economic Growth Through 2045

The Observer: NEU Professor: GDP Growth Must Reach 9.5% per Year for Vietnam to ‘Become a Dragon’ by 2045

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham The Anh: Vietnam Needs Macroeconomic Stability Before Considering Rapid Growth

Vietnam Real Estate Magazine: High Growth and Sustainable Development: Dual Requirements in Vietnam’s Long-Term Strategy

Merchant Magazine: A Strategy for Vietnam’s Economy to Grow Rapidly and Develop Sustainably

One World Magazine: Without Policy Breakthroughs, Science and Technology Will Struggle to Become the Main Driver of Growth

24h: Exceptional Growth: Choose Breakthroughs or Persistence?

This is an automated translation. If you notice any errors, please contact the Department of Communications, National Economics University at phongtruyenthong@neu.edu.vn.