PNO – We cannot simply call on people to have more children without considering the many issues that families must worry about and weigh carefully. This is the view shared with the forum by Prof. Dr. Giang Thanh Long, senior lecturer at the Faculty of Economics, National Economics University (NEU).

Prof. Dr. Giang Thanh Long – Photo provided by the interviewee

Policies adopted merely for show are unlikely to be effective

Vietnam’s fertility rate is trending downward, remaining below replacement level (2.1 children per mother of childbearing age, 15-49) for two consecutive years. Although this decline is not particularly rapid, lessons from Japan and South Korea suggest that Vietnam could also face severe consequences if it fails to intervene in a coordinated manner and allows this situation to persist.

 

According to data from Statistics Korea, the country’s fertility rate in 2023 was 0.72, down from 0.78 in 2022, and could fall further to 0.65 in 2024 if current conditions persist.

The question is: Have these two countries simply stood by and watched fertility decline? In fact, Japan began introducing a range of coordinated policies to encourage childbearing about 20 years ago. South Korea started later but has taken strong measures.

Both countries have fairly similar policies, such as enabling men to take time off work to care for their children and providing direct cash support to couples who have children. Even so, fertility in both countries continues to decline. Some scholars have even described South Korea’s situation as a “sheer cliff,” suggesting that it is sliding downward too quickly, with little chance of climbing back up.

Numerous studies have examined the causes from economic, social, and cultural perspectives.

First, economic conditions are becoming increasingly difficult, and many couples struggle to find jobs and secure stable incomes. In particular, women’s growing participation in the workforce in both countries means that having children can sometimes become a burden, affecting their job performance and career plans.

Second, in major economic hubs such as Tokyo and Osaka in Japan, or Seoul and Busan in South Korea, housing prices and rents have risen sharply, making it harder for many young couples to buy or even rent a home.

At the same time, growing demand for more and better education and healthcare services for children, together with high service fees, poses long-term obstacles for many couples.

Third, both countries now have a new generation of older people who are more financially independent and in better health. Despite their age, they continue to engage in activities that serve their own needs, such as work and recreation.

They are no longer like previous generations, who traditionally assumed responsibility for caring for their children and grandchildren. Declining unpaid support within families, combined with childcare services that are either unavailable outside working hours or available only at high fees, also creates major obstacles to having more children.

Looking at the causes in these countries, we can see that residents of Vietnam’s major cities, such as Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, face the same situation.

Campaigns or policies adopted merely for show will not genuinely improve fertility rates. We cannot simply call on people to have more children without considering the many issues families must weigh regarding finances, personal freedom, and opportunities in life when having another child.

A comprehensive, coordinated policy package is needed

Determining how to encourage childbearing and what implementation roadmap to follow requires a truly comprehensive policy package with fundamental changes. Only then can we encourage childbearing and maintain a fertility rate appropriate to economic development, social development, and healthcare conditions.

In major cities such as Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, fertility rates are below the national average, but net migration is positive: more people move in than move out. As a result, these cities’ populations continue to grow. Urban services such as education, healthcare, clean water, and sanitation cannot meet all needs, creating pressing problems, particularly with housing and living conditions for couples. With incomes barely covering living expenses, the goal of “a stable home and a secure livelihood” seems increasingly out of reach. How, then, would they manage if they had another child?

Education is also a major headache for residents. As we can readily see, the intense competition for public school places in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City returns year after year. Our service planning is failing to keep pace with demographic changes in urban areas.

Dozens of high-rise apartment buildings housing thousands of families may spring up in a district, yet almost no additional schools are built. When new schools do open, they are private schools with tuition fees that not every household can afford. I once lived in Shinjuku, one of Tokyo’s most densely populated wards.

At the time, my child was starting kindergarten. When I submitted an application to a public school, I worried that there would be no place and that I would have to apply in another ward. To my surprise, however, both the local authorities and the nursery assured me that there were enough places for all children in the area.

I later learned that plans for building nurseries, schools, hospitals, and other facilities are always based on the current population and projections of demographic changes, allowing for timely adjustments and additions.

Illustrative photo – Shutterstock

Having children is a personal decision and a human right. Encouraging childbearing and changing attitudes therefore requires fundamental, coordinated policy changes, starting with housing, education, and healthcare policies. Policymaking cannot be rushed or accomplished overnight; it requires a long-term vision.

Vietnam has an important advantage that could help improve fertility: we are in a demographic dividend period, and although fertility is declining, it is doing so slowly.

Childbearing should not be encouraged indiscriminately

Some have asked whether, given the current decline in fertility, Vietnam should encourage people to have a third child or even as many children as they wish. To answer this, we need to note that fertility rates vary quite markedly across Vietnam’s regions. In areas with more difficult economic conditions, such as the northern midlands and mountainous areas or the Central Highlands, fertility remains high.

We should therefore avoid blanket encouragement of childbearing. Otherwise, we could inadvertently raise fertility in areas where it is already high and economic conditions remain difficult, placing a burden on families and society in ensuring children’s quality of life.

A poor household with as many as five to seven children cannot provide adequate conditions for raising them. Local authorities also lack the resources to provide care and support, potentially leading to poor educational and health outcomes. We cannot talk only about numbers—maintaining fertility and keeping the population stable—without discussing how to ensure quality of life for people, including newborns and children.

It is said that people can adapt to climate change and mitigate its impacts, but with population aging, we can only adapt, not reduce it, because it is an inevitable trend. Improving population quality is therefore very important in adapting to population aging.

Right now, while we have a favorable demographic structure, we must improve educational attainment, skills, and other relevant factors to secure sustainable employment and better incomes. We must also take steps to maintain good health as we prepare for the transition to an aged population.

Huyen Anh (as told to)

Link: https://www.phunuonline.com.vn/khuyen-sinh-khong-the-nong-voi-a1525997.html

This is an automated translation. If you notice any errors, please contact the Department of Communications, National Economics University at phongtruyenthong@neu.edu.vn.