Economic growth in 2023 weathered truly severe tests, further strengthening confidence for 2024.

Economist Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang continues to share lessons from economic growth in 2023 and perspectives for 2024.

How do you assess the difficulties facing Vietnam’s economy in 2023?

The main difficulties were a shortage of orders, declining aggregate demand for Vietnamese goods, inflation as the greatest source of instability, and numerous measures and technical barriers imposed by other countries that increased export costs. Interest rate policy was continually adjusted, fiscal support policies remained inadequate in practice, and businesses’ capacity to fully utilize incentives under international commitments remained limited relative to their potential. The failure to disburse public investment capital according to plan also delayed projects, somewhat slowing economic flows.

Mr. Nguyen Thuong Lang

Nevertheless, GDP growth of 5.05% was a major achievement. Record FDI inflows, high rates of import and export growth, and strong tourism development demonstrated the economy’s considerable resilience. Both its actual strength and potential improved, and the growth outlook remained positive. It should also be emphasized that, after a difficult year, the economy had accumulated considerable internal capacity.

The hardships were indeed a severe test, but they did not halt the economy’s progress.

From these perspectives, what room is there for growth in 2024, and what needs to be done, particularly in imports and exports?

Growth potential remains substantial. Export markets still offer considerable room, especially the markets of partners in trade agreements. The global economy has significant potential for development in 2024 as inflation is brought under control and technological advances fuel a surge in aggregate demand and expand the capacity to increase spending.

Meanwhile, China’s economy is showing signs of recovery, and the U.S. economy is tending toward stability. Despite conflict, Europe will adopt adaptation strategies rather than experience a steep downturn. Although barriers are increasing, Vietnamese businesses are highly adaptable and can find many new opportunities, from an optimistic perspective.

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Against this backdrop, efforts must be intensified to find markets, understand barriers in order to adapt, and consistently pursue vigorous economic diplomacy. The business environment must be improved further and more thoroughly to reduce the time and costs incurred by businesses as much as possible. Prices must be stabilized, inflation kept low, and support and recovery packages fully implemented.

Public investment in megaprojects must be accelerated, the institutional framework for public investment improved, bottlenecks and procedural obstacles removed, private investment encouraged, and high-quality FDI attracted. Digital transformation, the green transition, and the energy transition must be pursued decisively. Substantive promotion programs are needed. Particular attention should be paid to improving the services trade balance, strongly developing services with significant advantages such as tourism and telecommunications, giving due importance to transportation and logistics services, and reducing inventories by all means.

Entrepreneurship, regional linkages, and infrastructure development must be further promoted, with more effective connectivity. The Halal market should be tapped, and the rice industry developed through new, large-scale, high-quality models. Measures should be implemented to achieve low emissions, develop key industries to generate breakthroughs, expand financial and monetary markets, promote the formation of economic centers with special mechanisms, and foster the healthy development of the stock market to create new drivers of development…

There remains ample room for development: that is what can be said about 2024.

Thank you.

Quang Loc

Link: https://kinhte.congthuong.vn/pgsts-nguyen-thuong-lang-van-con-du-dia-cho-tang-truong-kinh-te-2024-295820.html

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